Грядет волна критики нарушения прав человека в Катаре на фоне жеребьевки ЧМ 2022

 В западных газетах, особенно в странах, которые не вышли в финал ЧМ 2022 в Катаре, поднимается волна критики в адрес организаторов.  Не было еще случая, чтобы страны незападного посола не испытывали на себе давление так называемых свободных (от морали) западных стран при организации больших спортивных мероприятий вроде олимпиады и ЧМ. Миллионы убитых ими людей в странах, географически близких к Катару, включая невинных детей не являются нарушение прав человека. Человеки живут только в странах западной цивилизации, а в остальных это нарушители прав человека и их жертвы. И все терпят, как это не странно. Хотя давно известно, что " Когда пришли за коммунистами, я не протестовал. Я не коммунист. Когда пришли за евреями, я не протестовал, ведь я не еврей. А когда пришли за мной, некому было протестовать."

Electricity generation in the UK: green energy has negligible input today

Today is likely a cloudy day in the UK and almost no wind. Green energy generation is even lower than yesterday. The figure below presents the split of energy generation by sources. Gas is leading  - more than a half of generation. Nuclear energy is stable and gives 15% at all times. Import (Norway) varies to match the demand. Solar energy today is low and wind has been gaining speed since early morning but did not reach its cruise speed. Overall, the last week was poor and gas was the remedy. New green energy facilities would not help this week. If double the green energy share  - an enormous investment - its input will be still negligible compared to gas. To estimate the cost to double windmill power (~20 GW) - $1.3 million per MW - one obtains (20 GW/0.001 GW) 20,000,000,000,000 British pounds. 

Новые данные в Великобритании показывают, что колебания производства энергии ветра могут достигать двух порядков.

С 1 марта 2022 года я наблюдаю за изменениями в производстве энергии ветра в Великобритании на основе опубликованных здесь наблюдений. Моя предыдущая оценка амплитуды колебаний выработки электроэнергии составляла 30 раз. Сегодня я обнаружил, что ветер может упасть еще ниже, как показано на рисунке ниже. Текущий уровень составляет 0,311 ГВт (позже обнаружил величину 0.189 ГВт), тогда как несколько недель назад он составлял около 20 ГВт. Не будет преувеличением предположить, что диапазон изменения энергии ветра составляет около двух порядков величины. Предыдущая неделя была очень плохой для ветроэнергетики Великобритании, и за предыдущие 48 часов возобновляемые источники энергии (включая импорт из Норвегии) дали только 14,5%. 

Планы развития ветроэнергетики должны включать возможность практически полного отсутствие ветра. Иными словами, нужно вырабатывать всю необходимую стране энергию, используя альтернативные возобновляемым источникам способы генерации электричества. Иронично, но это генерация на основе невозобновляемых источников типа газа и угля. В результате в стране должно существовать две параллельные системы генерации полностью обеспечивающие спрос на электричество. При этом в каждый момент времени работать будет только одна из них. Экономическая эффективность снижается в два раза. Эта положение сохранится до тех пор, пока энергия возобновляемых источников не будет запасаться в необходимых количествах. И батареи тут не помогут ввиду крайне низкой плотности энергии.

New data in the UK shows that variations in wind energy production may reach two orders of magnitude

Since March 1, 2022, I have been watching variations in wind energy production in the UK based on the observations published here. My previous estimate of the variation amplitude was a factor of 30. Today I found that wind may fall even lower as the figure below shows. The current level is 0.311 GW while a few weeks ago it was around 20 GW. It would not be an exaggeration to assume that the range of wind energy variation is around two orders of magnitude.  The previous week was very poor for the UK wind energy generation and during the previous 48 h renewables (including imported from Norway) gave only 14.5%.

Germany should not accept roubles as the payment currency for Russian natural gas

1. The shortage in the natural gas supply will increase the natural gas price: half will cost as a whole and Germany selling half of the imported Russian gas will gain

2. However, this price increase will suppress the production of metals and plastic and thus the whole industrial production 

3. The fall in energy supply and industrial production will decelerate building new green energy facilities which need a lot of energy and materials

4. The natural gas price increase will prohibit the production of fertilizers and heating of the greenhouses

5. Oil and thus diesel price rise will suppress transportation of goods and suppliers to industry and retailers

6. Agriculture without diesel and fertilizers will stop food production starting with the upcoming sowing 

7. Underground gas storage will be empty and house heating will cost too much during the next winter 

Wind energy production is still extremely low in the UK: green energy transition will suffocate the economy

 Good weather in the UK is accompanied by low wind speed resulting in a drop in wind energy production to a negligible level. The next week will be rainy and cloudy with low solar energy production but likely with a significant increase in wind energy. 

Considering the current low green energy share in the total electricity balance one can evaluate the plan for an expedited increase in renewables. During the best days in 2022, renewables may give more than 50% of electricity. This means that one should not increase the current stock of solar panels and windmills by more than a factor of 2. Excessive electricity production is not yet matched by effective storage capabilities like batteries or hydrogen. The latter is the most preferable storage means because hydrogen has the largest energy density among all non-nuclear materials (see figure 2 below). However, when doubled, the renewables still give 30% of electricity during poor days of anti-cyclons. This means that fossils will still be needed at the same level as now before hydrogen batteries will be available to store enough green energy.

The expedited transition to renewables has another negative effect -  the biggest players in energy production have to accelerate the transition to green energy and stop investment, drilling, extraction, and exploration (bad time for oil service companies). This is a kind of stock market panic - the last leaving the market pays full price. As a result, fossil prices will be growing in response to the famous supply-demand equation. The panic wave is at a low start right now and we will see the real fight for energy resources in the months to come. 

Figure 1. Electricity production

Figure 2. Source - https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/c/c6/Energy_density.svg

Another catastrophic day for wind energy in the UK

 In my previous post on variations in green energy production in the UK, I referred to a wonderful website collecting energy production data including "embedded sources", i.e. individual production. Wise planning of the country-wide electricity supply must include the scattering of green energy production for various time periods - from hours (energy production based on hydro-resources and natural gas can be changed within a few hours, but nuclear energy is less flexible) to years. Meanwhile, one has to match sudden drops in renewables over days and weeks. The figure below is borrowed from the aforementioned website and demonstrates that wind production is less than 3% of the total during the previous three days. Natural gas is the current answer to this challenge: all renewables, including those in imported electricity from Norway and biomass (whatever it is) during the last 48 hours made only 15.5% of the total. Planning of the energy supply has to include such low-wind (anti-cyclons) periods and also low insolation ( cyclons) periods to come. The available electricity production facilities based on natural gas have to be ready to replace green energy. The figure below shows that the fossil sources have essentially to cover the whole energy balance. 

As a result, the current plan to replace fossils with renewables implies that the UK will have to duplicate electricity sources. The fossil-based sources have to be able to fully cover the absence of green energy (nuclear energy is a specific issue but it was not considered green before). Climate change may produce more anti-cyclons in the future and also increase electricity demand during extremely hot days in summer - there were several days last year with temperatures close to +40C. around. Interesting.