5/24/23

The reasons why the UNSC should not be extended by new permanent members

 The problem with the SC enlargement is that the country to enter will be under great (and dirty) pressure from the West to obey (economic sanctions, civil unrest like color revolutions, election fraud/pressure, conflicts with neighbors, ... so many examples we see now) and there are no countries that can survive except Russia and China. They are already in the SC. Countries like South Africa or Brazil will be converted into the West servants in a few weeks. India is on the side of the West already as the elites are fully British. Who else? Germany and Japan are deeply Nazis and inhumane in the eyes of the international community (Do you remember what Japan made in China and Korea ?). No UNSC permanent member except the US will allow them. Mexico? Egypt? These countries will be devastated if will not serving to the US as they depend on it.


At the end of the day, any new UNSC permanent member will ally with the West by force or gold. The overall conditions will deteriorate in the not-western countries as a result. All not-western countries have to assist Russia and China to create conditions when the new UNSC member will obey the international law, not the US-invented-on-the-fly rules.

Anti-war movement is not possible in the US anymore

Do not forger that the hippie anti-war movement was the reaction of rich young people to evade mandatory military service in Vietnam. The best way to avoid military call was to change location (old VW on the road) and appearance (long hairs and unusual clothing). Ladies accompanying these nice (coward) people were just a cherry on the cake. When the war ended, the movement was dissolved as fog in the morning. The change is military organization (voluntary service) in the US made the anti-war movement weak and almost unnecessary. People from the rusty belt, farmers, and people of color are currently consider the army service. Only people in the far tails of the normal distribution of passion in the population participate in anti-war actions.

5/17/23

Don't buy Patriot. Buy Kinzhal and you need no Maverick!

Five launchers and radar were destroyed by the Kinzhal attack on May 16 in Kiev. The loss is about 1 billion dollars.  The most advanced Patriot with AI control was placed within the civilian Kiev and this was one of the protection measures used by ukrainians - take hostages from their own population. These details are important because the most advanced Patriot system together with Italian and Norwegian local anti-missile systems failed in extremely favorable conditions.   I do not understand the US and Germany who supplied two Patriots to Ukraine.  They likely know Kinzhal characteristics and could calculate risks to be demolished in the first attack – shame. 

There was a famous movie Maverick displaying the importance of extremely talented pilots to accomplish a difficult mission against a well-protected (likely Russian)  object.  I watched the first several minutes of the film because Maverick was needed since no missile can do the job. This is a lie, I thought; Kinzhal can easily do it. And it can destroy a highly protected object. 

Buy Kinzhal and you will no need to spend your money on idiotic Maverick movies. Reality is much more exciting. Also, this world changed on May 16. No protection exists anymore for cities, military objects, or ships (aircraft carriers). Anything and anyone can be destroyed with Mach 10 to 12 speed. 

How many Kinzhals are needed to put down Raytheon?

Patriot integrated system was broken in Ukraine by Kinzhal hypersonic missile. This was not 1 of 8 cheap launchers but the extremely expensive control part of the system. All Patriots in the world are now in danger of total destruction by hypersonic missiles which are available not only from Russia, but also many leading non-western countries successfully develop similar weapons (likely with Russian assistance). At the end of the day the overall anti-missile system of the integrated west are just a waste of time and money. The same is with the aircraft carriers protecting sea routs to numerous military bases. No supply rout is safe now. Raytheon does not look a safe investment in the long run. 

5/14/23

Football is dying. Strict rules or fine tuning of refereeing

 Football has recently been causing a lot of controversy around refereeing. In almost all countries where it is played. Fans, coaches, and players no longer understand what the consequences of their actions are when there is a violation and when it is not. Moments that are absolutely identical from a non-judicial point of view are evaluated differently. This leads to a completely natural result - interest in football as such is reduced, since this interest is not based on thick books of instructions for use, but on the intuitive feeling of people who have played football themselves. Fans understand the essence of football much more than sports officials. Fans pay money for the opportunity to imagine themselves in the place of a player, to merge with football. Officials come up with rules to achieve "fairness", but not the soul of football. Matches are sometimes more like a trial than a spectacle. Football is dying because one can't drag new fans into such a boring showdown. I am a fun since 1963 or 60 years.

An example from economics. Central banks have long discussed the issue of base rate management. There are two approaches: raising and lowering the rate in such a way as to reach a predetermined level of inflation, which is also called inflation targeting. Target inflation is constant. In another approach, the target inflation varies with the inflation rate itself, so that the dynamics of the base rate can change over a wider range. In football refereeing, there has been a transition from a strict refereeing rule (targeting), when small details are not taken into account, to fine-tuning the rules (referee instructions), which can also change. Groups are formed to change the old rules, which seem wrong to some officials like Čeferin. This path is a dead end and will lead to the death of football as a national game. The European Union is on the road with its ethrnal "rules".

Футбол умирает. Строгие правила или тонкая настройка судейства?

Футбол в последнее время вызывает много споров вокруг судейства. Практически во всех странах, где в него играют. Болельщики, тренеры и футболисты больше не понимают каковы последствия их действий, когда нарушение есть и когда его нет. Совершенно одинаковые с несудейской точки зрения моменты оцениваются по-разному. Это приводит к совершенно естественному результату — интерес к футболу как таковому снижается, так как это интерес основан не на толстых книжках инструкций по применению, а на интуитивном чувстве людей, которые сами играли в футбол. Болельщики понимают в сути футбола гораздо больше, чем спортивные чиновники. Болельщики платят деньги за возможность представить себя на месте игрока, слиться с футболом. Чиновники придумывают правила, чтобы добиться "справедливости", но не правды футбола. Матчи порой больше напоминают судебное разбирательство, а не зрелище. Футбол умирает, так как новых болельщиков в такую скучную разборку не затянешь. Я болею с 1963 или 60 лет. 

Пример из экономики. Центральные банки долго обсуждали проблему управления базовой ставкой. Есть два подхода: поднимать и опускать ставку таким образом, чтобы достичь заранее установленного уровня инфляции, что также называется таргетированием инфляции.  Целевая инфляция является постоянной. В другом подходе целевая инфляция меняется в зависимости от самого уровня инфляции, так чтобы динамика изменения базовой ставки могла изменяться в более широком диапазоне. В футбольном судействе произошел переход от строгого правила судейства (таргетирования), когда не принимаются во внимание мелкие детали, к тонкой настройке правил (судейских инструкций), которые могут так же меняться. Создаются группы по изменению старых правил, которые кажутся неверными некоторым чиновникам типа Чеферина. Этот путь тупиковый и приведет к смерти футбола как всенародной игры. Евросоюз о уел со своими "правилами".  

5/13/23

The explosion of an ammunition depot near Khmelnytsky is visible at seismic stations in Europe

Seismic and acoustic waves from this event are seen at European stations. It was big: ML~2.5-3.0. It is difficult to accurately calculate the TNT equivalent but for surface explosions, it should be between 10 and 100 t. Considering the fact it was not a concentrated source the upper limit is more probable. Actually, there were several distinct events close in space and detected within a few hours. The depot was likely not so simple. There was another event a few hours later with a larger magnitude to the south – likely underground, as no acoustic was observed.

Взрыв склада боеприпасов около Хмельницкого виден на сейсмических станциях Европы

Сейсмические и акустические волны от этого события видны на европейских сейсмостанциях. Он был большим: ML~2.5-3.0. Трудно точно рассчитать тротиловый эквивалент, но для наземных взрывов он должен составлять от 10 до 100 тонн. Учитывая, что это был не концентрированный источник, более вероятен верхний предел. Такое событие может использоваться как реперное (точные координаты) в рамках сейсмической локации.

5/4/23

With one leg in WWIII

 I have experience in nuclear testing in the 1980s and have to say that the power of the explosions is frightening. According to Thatcher, the power of nuclear bombs made the WWIII impossible. That's why any war within the territory of a country with thousands of nuclear and thermonuclear bombs was excluded.  The bombs are still there, but the war came to Russian territory. Terrorist attack at Kremlin made Ukraine a terrorist country and made the West to be a sponsor of the terrorist country. It does not matter that the West denies this happened. The decision is not with them. We are all one leg in WWIII. The probability of a no-war scenario is negligible now.