6/12/22

If liberal thinking has a natural boundary it has to be considered as conservative thinking

We observe the time of actual liberal thinking in action in western countries. The power of liberalism is tremendous and is used for changing this world into a new state. For a conservative, any current state is a value to fight for. According to J.Haidt, there are values like sanctity (power of divinity), authority (power of experience), and loyalty (power of group work or coalition), which attract conservatives more than liberals.  Essentially, these values define the difference between conservatives and liberals. Fairness and care are the only two values attracting liberal minds. It is strange but statistically Liberty as a moral foundation belongs to both groups equally. 

The practical liberalism we observe now gives us experimental material to project the future of the society if it will be progressing along the liberal avenue. First of all, it is clear that liberalism is very inventive in defining fairness and care conditions with any outlier to be considered as an object of fairness and case with the interest inversely proportional to its abundance. The number of outlier cases is diminishing accordingly as liberal activists work hard and this makes the future of liberal thinking to be grim. If they stop finding new objects for case and fairness they become conservatives defending the current state of society. When a liberal will say " top here" a more liberal person has to blame this liberal as a conservative. This process is endless. I guess that the next step will be to define some parts of human bodies as independent entities. This process can go down to elementary particles and quantum states in accordance with Penrose's ideas. This would be the end of liberalism and the Conservative Kingdom will reign forever.

6/3/22

One graph shows why US inflation has monetary nature and why will end in catastrophic deflation

The discussion on the reasons behind and responsibilities for the price inflation in the USA can be illustrated in one graph in Figure 1 - the ratio of personal income and GDP as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The COVID-driven extra money supply or so-called "helicopter money" (Bernanke loved this idea) was not connected to any economic activity. The ratio in Figure 1 below demonstrates that the share of PI was 105% in 2020Q2 with a long-term average of 85%.  This is 20% of GDP which were not a usual component of the Gross Domestic Product, i.e. 20% of helicopter money/ One can call this money a direct dollar devaluation. The price reaction is clear - the whole set of goods and services just jumped to the new price of the dollar to equalize supply and the new demand. 

In 2022Q1, one can see that the PI/GDP ratio is back to the long-term trend and no helicopter money is left in the economy, but the prices now include the helicopter money at the new PI level of around 100% of the GDP. There is a time delay of approximately 1.5 years between money injection into the economy and price increase. In Figure 2, the PI/GDP ratio is synchronized with the CPI inflation rate scaled to the PI/GDP level in order to stress the coherent evolution. Inflation represents the integral change in helicopter money. In the second half of 2021 and in 2022, we observe an abrupt decrease in the money supply  (such an artificial surge in money supply has never been observed in the past in the USA) will induce an abrupt price fall in the near future - deflation. A new portion of helicopter money is the remedy to avoid deflation now. But the deflationary potential is increasing proportionally. 

Figure 1. PI?GDP ratio since 2000

Figure 2. The current CPI (blue dots) delays by approximately 1.5 years behind the money injection. The shifted CPI (red dots) is synchronized with the money injection as expressed by the PI.  In the near future (likely in 2022Q4 or 2023Q1), the CPI will fall below the zero line.