Risk assessment is a key procedure for business. To provide safety, i.e. mitigation of major risks for a reasonable price, for all stakeholders of a given business one needs profit assessment and revealing/ understanding risks. Since the desired safety level depends on business profit and expenses related to risk mitigation one looks into the profit forecast and long term statistics of risks to decide on business perspectives. Both, the COVID-19 pandemic and socio-racial protests enhanced by robbery and looting, have dramatically changed both sides of the balance – for the majority of people and businesses the mid-term profit is much lower than that was estimated in 2019 and the risks for many businesses have been increasing since February 2020. For example, business-related to outdoor food and hospitality will likely be suppressed due to increased insurance payment and reduce profit forecast.
The major beneficiary in this situation is IT-companies, which benefit on both sides – their capitalization has been increasing since the deep local minima in February-March due to the lockdown and their risk assessment has been decreasing since these companies have moved to remote work. The latter means no risk for the IT-companies – everything is online. Easy money made their thoughts thin and they support protesters – longer and bloody protests will bring more and more money – this is a magic dollar printing machine.
Lucky IT-companies (and few others), but many other businesses will suffer more and more. Industrial companies will have problems with increasing risks of pandemic pressure and the personal safety of workers. Credits will be harder to get due to increasing risks and debts rising since February. Protests- looting-robbery -… will affect people who have to drive to work instead of sitting home with laptops on top of their laps and with caps of coffee. All in all, the next stage of economic growth will not be with industrial companies (good for IT who can prolong the protests and suppress industries, which likely support Trump). I have to say that the support of protesters creates a moral hazard situation. This is a declaration of war to suffering industries.
However, the real dark time comes to laypeople with lower incomes. Both, the COVID-19 pandemic-related lockdown and slower recovery due to protest disordering will make these people poorer and much poorer. The income loss alone puts their lives at risk and this is the existential risk for tens of millions. But this is a smaller risk to my mind. The actual risk is that law enforcement troops like police and sheriffs are in the process of replacement by private security service (e.g. Minneapolis City Council members). This is a fully libertarian idea that lower-quality human beings have to sell workforce to higher-quality human beings and no social/governmental services have to exist at all. This means state deconstruction. The USA will be the union of self-assistance.