6/16/21

Greenpeace is a piece of brown sh..: Greenpeace activist hurts Germany-France football match audience

Greenpeace is a bunch of mad activists attacking peaceful people. A paraplanner with a Greenpeace logo landed directly on the audience before the France-Germany football match and hurt a few. People worldwide learned important lessons from this action: Greenpeace activists are insane, Greenpeace activists are not accountable; Greenpeace activists reckless, Greenpeace activists are not professional; Greenpeance activists do not care about people (except themselves?). 


This kind of behavior is the Greenpeace visit card, but this time they attacked a wrong target.

6/14/21

G7 = USA (genocide of native population) + Germany (occupied by the US Nazi country), Japan (occupied by the US, Nazi allies), Italy ( Fascists), Canada (accommodate Nazi criminals), Australia (genocide of native population), Great Britain (world's top murderer).

These people rule the world. 

When Maricopa county vote audit proves fraud - will Putin and Xi consider Biden as a legal US president?

The Maricopa county vote audit is a watershed for president Biden. The statistics of voting in Russia were discussed in this blog. The deviations from standard statistical distributions (like normal) were considered as a systematic fraud by the extension of a few cases to the whole voting process. The same is applicable to the USA. When the fraud will be opened and highlighted one should expand the fraud concept to all complaints since this fraud is systematic. When the fraud is proven, Biden will lose legitimacy as a president in eyes of the world leaders in conflict with the US - Putin and Xi. I wonder what will be with the world security then.  

Biden at G7. Russia and China are safe. Biden will send missiles to Marssia and Chinus

Biden's speech on the situation in Lybia has a direct implication. He does not remember anything he prepared for weeks (Jill Biden version). Moreover, this mistake might be the result of long preparation. His mental capacity is not enough to take onboard Lybia and Syria together. No new information is stopped inside. China and Russia are safe. Biden will likely send missiles to Marssia and Chinus.  This is the leader of the real world of freedom -  people were free of mind when voted for this clown.

6/13/21

For Putin, it would be wise to postpone the summit with Biden by two weeks

Biden took a longer tour and a lot of meetings with various agents before the meeting with Putin. The internal temperature in Biden's team is closer to the boiling point. The expectations and promises are enormously high. The West is waiting for the punishment and execution even if the reality could be the opposite. Construction of virtual reality by social networks and mainstream media is commonplace and the result of the meeting is already known for the team. The West wins anyway. Even when lost. Biden is fully equipped and ready physically and emotionally. 


For Putin, it would be wise to postpone the meeting by two weeks using some small reason. Biden's team will let off steam. Expectations and promises will ruin. The Maricopa county vote audit will be finished and will possibly kill Biden's legal status as president   Biden's shape will degrade both physically and mentally. Fake news will rotten. All in all, the game will be inverted. 

I am sure, Putin has a plan for how to do this artistically. The best would be to refer to confidential "highly likely" security issues related to the summit place or  Biden's health.

Why I am waiting for the results of the Maricopa county vote audit

The USA is a wonderful and extremely professional country for statistical data and analysis. I have been using economic and population data since 2003 and currently use such tremendous sources as the US Census Bureau, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Economic Analysis, and also IPUMS. What I like most is the accuracy of data which is supported by repeated counting of the same parameters and spot check. For example, I use the number of people in a given age group as a potential driver of economic growth. This makes the accurate counting of the age pyramid in the decennial censuses crucial for my quantitative analysis. The census data, however, are prone to numerous coverage, undercounting, miscounting problems due to the size of the task - all population. As a result, the single-year-of-age populations are not reliable. In order to improve the accuracy, several additional (spot check) studies are conducted soon after the census in order to assess the difference between the census and more accurate data gathered with more concentrated resources. I find this spot check fabulous since it finds the difference up to 50% in some strata. Overall, the corrected census data are much more accurate and better fit quantitative analysis. I am able to say so because I personally observed that data scattering between various groups becomes much lower. 

The Maricopa county vote audit is similar to the spot check conducted by the Census Bureau and BLS. A much more accurate counting with much larger resources has to give a more accurate result. This is important to retain the integrity of social sciences in the USA and the whole world. It also promotes trust in the measured results to a new level. From time to time, I watch the live cameras. It makes me more confident in the greatness of the USA.

Belgium and Belgians have a terrible and bloody colonial past. They have to lie down and do not move, not to knee to black Africans

Belgian media did not understand well the reaction of the Russian public before the match yesterday. The crimes of Belgians, including the human Zoo in the 1950s, are so unprecedented even between other colonial countries that every Belgian has to lie down before black Africans.  Russians expressed their strong and long-term solidarity with black Africa. We blame and condemn the Belgian nation and King Leopold II as the worst human beings ever. The genocide in Congo will never be forgotten. 

Russia protected  African countries in their fight for freedom against colonial Belgium and alike criminal states. The people's Friendship University of  Russia situated in  Moscow also named Patrice Lumumba  University. This hero was killed by King Baudouin

The most terrible thing is that Belgians already forgave themselves. In such crimes as in Africa, a nation cannot forgive itself. 

Может быть, Эриксен попал под действие каких-то легальных субстанций для повышения работоспособности? Дело ВАДА?

 

Ни для кого не секрет, что лучшие спортсмены все же употребляют легальные вещества для повышения спортивной результативности. Некоторые из этих веществ могут оказывать негативное воздействие на некоторых людей. Эриксен - спортсмен, находящийся под постоянным наблюдением за здоровьем - обязательно носит трекер и ежедневно проверяется врачами. Внезапная остановка сердца может быть признаком неправильного действия некоторых (разрешенных) веществ, у которых есть противопоказания. Я счастлив, что Эриксен сейчас в хорошей форме и не рискует жизнью. Команда Дании была раздавлена случаем с Эриксеном и выступила не очень хорошо. Это также может быть связано со страхом перед тем же эффектом. Ради здоровья спортсменов этот случай должен быть тщательно расследован УЕФА и ВАДА.

Could it be that Eriksen was under some legal substances for better performance? WADA case?

 It is not a secret that top sportsmen do use some legal substances in order to improve performance. Some of these substances could have a negative effect on selected human beings. Eriksen is a sportsman under permanent health monitoring - it is mandatory to wear a tracker and daily check. Sudden heart stoppage could be an indication of misperformance of some (legal) substance that has contraindications. I am happy that Eriksen is in a good shape now and has no life risk. The team of Denmark was destroyed by Eriksen'ss case and performed not well. It can be also be related to the fear of the same effect. For the sake of sportsmen health, this case has to be carefully investigated by UEFA and WADA.

6/12/21

Why Biden is frightened by joint press-conference with Putin

US officials commented on the separate press conference after the Russia-US summit. Obviously, old sports Biden is afraid of an open and direct discussion with Putin. There are two opportunities - face the conflict as a brave politician or lose the face as a coward. The essence of the summit considered by many experts is to reduce the level of conflict. This is just the opposite of the choice of separate pressers. Poor world. 

6/10/21

Conservatives do not rule the world. We will suffer

A new era is coming – the era of the growing amplitude of the collective social effects based on the "action at a distance"-type interaction between human beings. In physics, the meaning of "action at a distance" is related to the immediate (no-time) reaction of an object to an action of another object at any distance. Social networks and other extremely effective, cheap, and fast communication tools are the person-to-person "action at a distance", which lead to multiple spontaneous but coherent connections of unacquainted people on numerous topics of mutual interest, e.g. a no-time reaction of readers in Australia to a Twitter post in the US. In the past, such spontaneous reactions and gathering together in many groups at the same time were not possible due to the absence of effective two-way communication tools and a low number of physical connections (family, friends, co-workers, etc.) one can try on the topics of interest. It was difficult to find several persons who understand you and share your interest. For many years in many countries, football or other games fans were probably the largest groups of non-political interests. I am sure that it was not because of the beauty of the games as such.

 

Currently, millions can virtually gather together on some economically/socially/technically/ scientifically/etc. irrelevant but personally important topics. The Internet gives immediate and simultaneous (virtual) connection to the whole world (even language now is not a big issue) and one can find affinitive souls. (I guess that the post-modern philosophy is partly based on the increasing importance of the growing number and sizes of the collective effects in contemporary society, which likely came with the radio.)  In the physical world, flash-mobs are a simple but clear manifestation that the collective behavior driven by shared communication without interest to get some benefits from the action. In its natural form, flash-mobs are important as emotional release of accumulated stress. Such collective behavior has its own rules and laws. Therefore, it can be used for better or for worst. 

 

In physics, there are two major states related to the ensembles – closed system and open system. In a closed system, only the laws of interaction between particles/persons are important for the evolution of the whole system and its elements and sub-ensembles. In an open system, the interaction of elements can be also driven by external forces. In reality, there are internal and external forces competing for closing and opening a system. (For example, the USA protects its own electoral system but fights to open any other country's electoral system. In the economic domain, however, the USA has a much lower level of protectionism than in the political system.) The ensembles are characterized by various collective effects depending on the interaction laws, e.g. attraction or repulsion. Opposite forces can exist at the same time between two objects, e.g. gravitational attraction and electrical repulsion between two electrons. 

 

In the past, successful politics and policy were based on the possibility to retain the interaction between people in a given society within the agenda of high-level interest, even if people do not care or share these interests. For example, the cold war was a good idea to organize the interaction between members of society. In a few cases, small groups of people, usually called revolutionists, were able to formulate and disseminate collectively accepted ideas or, better to say, to express the existential but unrealized interest of an overwhelming majority of the population. Examples of great revolutions are well known. These are examples of collective self-driven behavior. The exclusiveness of such cases demonstrates how hard it was to ignite and sustain collective revolutionary actions. The number of failed coups is much larger than the number of successful revolutions. Communication means were slow and ineffective to push ideas through broader masses. Collective pain, i.e. unconditional consolidation based on a similar negative experience, was the driver of revolutions.

 

There is one type of collective behavior that frightens me if realized in modern society – chain reaction driven by virtual links. (A quantitative chain chemical reaction theory was created by Soviet physicist Nikolay Semyonov in 1934.) The main idea is that chemical reaction creates improved conditions for its continuation. The chemical explosion is an example of a chain chemical reaction. A nuclear explosion is also a type of chain reaction, but at the physical level – nuclei split by the capturing of neutron(s) and, together with lots of energy, emit more neutrons to split new nuclei. The total energy release can be catastrophic. The conditions for nuclear explosions can be, in an extremely simplistic form, formulated as a critical density of fissile material providing conditions for a chain reaction. This means that neutrons (more than one) emitted by one nucleus have to be caught by more than one nuclei. In an atomic bomb, the density is reached by extremely high compression created by a chemical explosion around the nuclear change itself.

 

The social processes related to collective behavior accelerated by the Internet applications and communications move into the direction of critical conditions for a chain reaction with damaging effects. Naïve flash-mobs were a good start for social protests in the Arab spring and Ukrainian unrest. The number and intensity of horizontal connections for one person are growing with time like the number of available tools like Facebook and TikTok. Moreover, the collective behavior is controlled by networks and probably by some other actors behind the scene. The horizontal connectivity of modern society has many positive sides, but there are well-known negative effects. The worst-case scenario, however, is if the controlled collective effects will go the nuclear explosion path. The Arab spring is a good example of external control of internal communication-driven unrest.

 

Such collective behavior in Arab countries seemed to be harmless for western states.  This is a powerful technology under fast development, however, which can be directed to any country. BLM and Antifa is an example of externally controlled aggression through collective communication by interest. It was a local action with a quite limited effect, but it is a gigantic step in the technology of social manipulation using extremely dense social networking along zillions of horizontal links. This technology is close to being able to create critical conditions for the “nuclear explosion” in the society in any country, including the USA.     

6/7/21

R.I.P. Russian Economics

 Today, I checked my RePEc (Research Papers in Economics) statistics. Every month, RePEc provides an update on the overall, yearly, and monthly interest to personal publications for more than 62,000 registered members.  There are many measures used to assess the level of interest and success of the authors and papers. I am a professional physicist but amateur economist without any ambition in the economic profession and cannot read the Econ101 course. However, the indigenous interest (I am no name in economics) in my papers and articles is much higher than for almost all Russian economists. Below, I copied a list of 25 top Russian economists (from approximately 1500 registered with RePEc) by the total number of downloads. I am in place 8, but only 2 from 7 economists above me are actually Russian by place of birth and name. If to consider the number of abstract views, as shown in the next scan, I am definitely in place 1 among the Russians. (Interestingly, there is my classmate in the top 25 by abstract views.)  

There are such measures, of course, as the number of citations and h-index which depend on the intra-group recognition. In these measures, based on courtesy exchange, my position is lower. However, the overall interest in the works by the Russian professional economists as measured by downloading/reading their papers by the broader audience (62,000 registered economists)  is extremely low. 

R.I.P. Russian Economics 









6/6/21

Separate Olympic Games for males and females

We all observe a conflict between males and females on the equality between genders in sports competitions.  The most prominent manifestation we see in the disciplines where competitions are conducted in parallel - same time, same facilities, same organizers. For example, in tennis competitions Roland Garros such inequality is openly articulated. This makes sports competitions unbearable to watch. Sports should be out of politics and all irrelevant issues as absolutely specific, I would say crystal clear, activity. In order to avoid unnecessary conflicts, we have to split males' and females' competitions in time, space, and organizers as it is adopted in football, for example. The Olympic Games have also to be conducted separately in different countries and in different years. It will attract more attention and finances. LGBTQ+ might call their own competitions if needed. Here I would like to express full respect to transgenders and propose separate competitions for both transitions. 

Conservatives do not rule the world. Reason 3

Conservatives have been losing their influence and power due to the satiation of the technical evolution and the creation of perpendicular reality, which is called virtual reality.  These are two reasons I presented before. The third reason is similar, but has a different meaning and potentially may work for conservative thinking in the future. 

The mass production of goods and services has been the driver of technical evolution since the second half of the 1800s. Industrial production created a great demand for scientists, engineers, technicians, and skilled workers. All these professions imply exceptional conservatism in everyday practice. These people ruled the world in line with technical progress for more than one century. They tried to transform extremely successful technical development into social progress. But failed. Capitalism is the domain of capital not related to human beings.

Instead of social progress, the conservatives invented an industry of exclusive goods and services for the broader quasi-elites - nouveau riches. To be exclusive is a synonym of having dominance. This is the dream of almost all not included. Exclusiveness means an individual approach - everything has to match the personality.  Mass production does not meet this requirement. Ordinary people feel like ordinary people before the technical progress makes it possible to provide individual solutions for almost everyone in the developed countries. Today, one can get an individual set of goods and services, with the latter growing much faster than the former, judging by the GDP structure in the developed countries. 

It could be the final victory for conservative thinking - this is the technical progress that provides this individual choice. But here we meet another problem. Do people really know what is their personality and what they really want to have?  The progress passed several levels of consumption. At the basic level, people consumed goods like food and clothing. With growing basic consumption and reduction in the everyday life risks, abstract thinking started to create material images like pictures and figures, which people consumed with increasing development in feelings and emotions. With time, people started to produce and consume practical (science) and imaginary (literature, music, philosophy, etc.) ideas. But now, most developed people consume the idea of how they look like when consuming ideas. Rational and spiritual ideas are second-rated now. 

All in all, we have many levels of personal consumption which may reveal personality.  Material and spiritual consumption are mainly conservative as based on the laws of the physical world and religious traditions. The most recent sort of consumption of the image of "how I myself consume various ideas" is absolutely detached from reality. This sort of consumption is not rational. It is even not irrational or spiritual. It is anti-rational and anti-spiritual. Here, this sort of consumption happily meets the liberal way of thinking, which does not follow any rational or spiritual requirements.  

An outbreak of ecstatic feelings is observed. The personality of ordinary people now is essentially the consumption of their own image, how they are consuming liberal ideas. No discussion is needed to feel right. No proof of own exceptionalism or supremacy is required. People are in the virtual world of their own perfection, as described in the post on Reason 2. This new Ubermensch (do not confuse with Uber drivers)  generation took the easiest way to express personality. 

Conservative thinking loses attractiveness because it requires more energy and time to get even to an average level. It does not give room for many people and suggest strict and uncompromised competition. Liberal thinking is open and has no limits: one can change own mind every second. Liberal thinking is attractive because the developed world is not risky and even the most idiotic and counterproductive ideas do not harm the overall technical and social progress. 

So far, so good. 



Conservatives do not rule the world. Reason 2

 The eternal dream of human beings (here I mean the loud majority)  in the developed world turned into reality - the world is not a dangerous place and rescue is so effective that one even puts own life at risk. The conservative progress  - the progress in the predictable and accountable domain of technical inventions and innovations is close to its end. The increment in general utility of everything related to the material world at every next step is considered with lowering enthusiasm - almost everything is granted to the majority.  

People now are looking for alternative sources of growth. The irony of the current situation is that the conservative progress made it possible to extend the growth into the virtual domain. Social networks provide a new opportunity - to get dominance by virtue of crazy or even idiotic behavior. The new measure of influence is the number of likes. Children now dream to become famous video bloggers. The new reality is virtual and the real-world competencies play no role anymore. As a result, conservatives lost a larger part of their influence on the majority of young minds (of course, there are smart young people who use both worlds for their own prosperity).  Liberal thinking much better fits this virtual world where murder is commonplace and violence is welcome. Any conservative restrictions meet fierce repulse. Conservatives created a new world out of their own control. The virtual world can easily kill conservative avatars in social networks.  


Conservatives, do not create monsters!

6/5/21

Conservatives do not rule the world. Reason 1

There are many reasons why conservatives are losing their power in the 21st century. I will try to formulate them one by one.

1. The main reason for the diminishing power of conservative thinking is its extreme success in the previous period. Conservatives used all possible resources (some of them absolutely immoral) to make human lives lengthy, healthy, and less risky. Technical progress and effective social hierarchy, which included well-organized protection of childhood and maternity, made live standards in developed countries extremely high. With time, these standards become an indispensable part of the living environment and now are accepted as granted, i.e. independent of personal efforts. The inherent risk aversion paradigm, which protected mankind for centuries, does not work anymore. For example, life expectancy has been growing in the USA since the beginning of the 20th but the length of healthy life has been decreasing since the 1980s-2000s. People rely on modern medicine and take quite risky actions and lifestyles. Such behavior is a clear indication of the unconditional trust in technical progress. The flip side of the unconditional trust and granted live standards is the diminishing influence of new technical innovations and technical progress as such. Conservative thinking is not attractive. People go for risk which they consider as freedom. 

The conservative thinking won the game - a non-risky world is finally created. Beware of turning dreams into reality.    


Why conservatives do not rule the world anymore?

In the previous two posts, I addressed several problems of liberal thinking. Essentially, they do not know where they go and change direction by a coin toss. The frequent change of freedom/fairness/equality/fairness/etc. meaning creates an illusion of fast progress, but they are actually lost in millions of irresolvable contradictions arising on the way to full righteousness. As I mentioned before, these legal/moral/physical/humanitarian/definitional/empirical/theoretical/etc. contradictions are not only irresolvable but also fully prohibited for discussion. Therefore, it seems that I treat liberals as pure evil in the flesh for social progress.  A reasonable question arises from such an assumption - why conservatives do not rule the world anymore if they are just opposite to the liberals?

6/4/21

Is any direction in liberal thinking a dead-end?

In the previous post, I have compared the methodology of thinking in conservative and liberal minds. Conservatives are simple - anything you are trying to prove should pass a strict testing procedure. The level of difficulty depends on the importance of the proposed change in thinking but any increment is practically irreversible. This makes technical progress based on solid knowledge so fast - new knowledge piles up. 

Liberal ideas do not undergo any strict proofing - just compare liberal mainstream discussions today, five years ago, twenty years ago, and so on. Many previous ideas are forgotten and understanding of freedom wobbles as the earth's rotation axis. This makes me suggest that any liberal idea is a dead-end. In practice, I cannot support the current version of liberal thinking since it will change spontaneously when a new "thinker" of socialism, liberalism, libertarianism, ...ism appears. Since the new path to social happiness is unpredictable and the current one will fade away in the near future it is conservative to ignore all versions of liberalism as leading to a dead-end(s).  The most conservative approach to liberalism would be to consider it as an instrument of dominance rather than an ideology. This is a dangerous instrument easily sharpened by stones of real social injustice and ancient myths of heaven justice. 



Why liberals are getting more and more aggressive. Methodological notes

  I wrote several posts on "liberals" and their comparison with "conservatives". This theme is endless, of course. Here, I address the difference between liberal and conservative approaches from the methodological point of view. 

As a physicist, I have to be very conservative and follow the well-developed scientific methodology in research and publications. Basically, any scientific fact is an observation projected to the domain of all available knowledge (experimental and theoretical), which is verified and falsified by the broader scientific community. (It does not mean that there are no mistakes in the available knowledge and not all physical publications are confirmed later on.) This means, that one has to meet several requirements when studying nature: checking internal consistency of a theory or experiment, finding corroborating observations and facts; prediction, (conduction of new experiments), and testing currently unknown observations, testing the limits of applicability (falsifiability), discussion with colleagues to assess the shortcomings and new ideas. For a scientist, the cost of error in natural sciences is high and this forces them to be very conservative. The error is usually final, i.e. it will never be reestimated as a success, as well as the reputation. A conservative mind is similar to the process of scientific study in hard sciences - it changes by small steps well-supported by practice and theory (aka wisdom). The overall progress in hard sciences is very fast, however. This is the result of a famous saying - do everything fast, i.e. slow but without interruptions.     

My observation of liberal minds and their products, so often in humanitarian sciences and politics, results in a suggestion that they follow some procedures opposite to those adopted in the hard sciences. Literally, one just need to negate all requirement, which I listed above and obtain the working requirements for a liberal mind processing. In the USA, the evolution of liberal thinking reached its ultimate point: no justification is needed for any theory. Just opposite - any justifiable theory is rejected as wrong without broader discussions, which are strictly prohibited. The theoretical domain is represented by small islands of historical dreams. The generation of new ideas and thoughts is rather a stochastic process based on a random combination of liberal bricks. The rate at which new liberal ideas/thoughts are generated is so high that their half-life is counted now in weeks and days. This makes the overall evolution in humanities and the liberal paradigm to be a random walk, with progress and regress equally probable. Essentially, they do not move at all in the fastly growing technical world.

The absence of progress and permanent failure to match any of the requirements adopted in adult sciences and to prove any consistent statement make the adepts of liberal thinking highly disappointed. The currently observed strong growth in aggressiveness is the result of this epic failure. Liberals have only one method to convince people - violence. The USA is the first playground for liberal activists. Conservatives, beware of liberals!