Сравнение естественной сейсмичности Украины с 2000 до 2021 с сейсмичностью 2022 и 2023 по данным Международного сейсмологического центра

На рисунке черными квадратами показаны сейсмические события на территории Украины и сопредельных стран в период с 2000 до 2021 год.  Это результаты регистрации естественной и индустриальной сейсмической активности, опубликованные Международным сейсмологическим центром. Красные кружки представляют сейсмические события, зарегистрированные в 2022 и 2023 годах. На рисунке показаны только оценки координат с помощью методов сейсмической локации. Доверительные эллипсы, соответсвующее  приведенным событиям могут иметь размеры большой полуоси до 100 км, но большинство событий имеет большую полуось доверительного эллипса порядка 50 км.   

Координаты примерно 49.5 град. с.ш. и 26.7 град. в.д. соответствуют серии из 12 событий, зарегистрированных 13 мая 2023 г. вблизи города Хмельницкий. Магнитуда по объемным волнам (mb) самого большого из сейсмических событий в этой серии была 3.8, что примерно соответствует подземному взрыву с мощностью от 100 т до 300 т ТНТ (по формулам для советских и американских полигонов, соответственно). С учетом практически прямого выхода продуктов детонации на поверхность (взрывной султан), мощность взрыва могла бы быть оценена в 2-3 раза выше. 

Сейсмические события 2022  и 2023 годов практически не совпадает с сейсмичностью в предыдущий 20-летний период, кроме нескольких карьеров с индустриальными взрывами. 

Comparison of seismicity in Ukraine: 2000-2021 to 2022-now

The figure below compares seismic events reported by ISC (IDC as the source) between 2000 and 2021 (black squares)  with the events found in 2022-2023 (red circles). 

International Seismological Centre reports 13 events (explosions?) near Khmelnytskyi on May 13: from 1:15 to 5:20 am

International Seismological Centre gathers information from various seismological and geophysical agencies and institutions and merges their data into comprehensive catalogs and bulletins. It takes a couple of years and the freshest data are published as provided by the ISC partners. The ISC is an open organization and everyone can search for any data using the extensive ISC services. I did a short search and found 13 events (likely explosions) on May 13 around Khmelnytskyi. Google map shows their locations (not true positions) and the bulletin below presents origin times, locations, confidences ellipses, and magnitudes.

2023/05/13 01:15:34.44   1.32 0.430  49.4848   26.7449  20.6  13.3  93   0.0f        uk IDC         619983277

2023/05/13 01:52:04.50   0.88 0.700  49.4563   26.7876  15.0  12.7 129   0.0f        uk IDC         619983281

2023/05/13 02:07:15.29   1.37 0.790  49.4729   26.8217  20.0  14.0  88   0.0f        uk IDC         619983285

2023/05/13 02:07:23.60   4.24 0.890  49.5384   26.8071  48.4  21.7  11   0.0f        uk IDC         619983286

2023/05/13 02:16:20.56   1.42 0.760  49.4889   26.7297  18.8  14.6  85   0.0f        uk IDC         619983287

2023/05/13 02:25:31.21   4.45 0.180  49.5526   26.9798  46.7  24.4  16   0.0f        uk IDC         619983290

2023/05/13 03:10:13.54   1.18 0.850  49.4368   26.7626  19.6  12.1  80   0.0f        uk IDC         619983301

2023/05/13 03:10:30.87   1.42 0.940  49.4448   26.8012  21.2  14.4  89   0.0f        uk IDC         619983302

2023/05/13 03:15:32.85   0.54 0.400  49.4062   26.9802   4.1   2.1 121   5.0   3.3   ke BUC         619913319

2023/05/13 04:11:56.08   8.16 133.3  49.5523   26.9240  66.4  36.9  52   0.0f        uk IDC         619983317

2023/05/13 04:43:42.24   4.36 0.690  49.5522   26.8800  46.9  23.3  17   0.0f        uk IDC         619983319

2023/05/13 05:19:47.41   3.88 79.27  49.4225   26.7726  40.0  23.1  19   0.0f        uk IDC         619983322

 BUC       National Institute for Earth Physics

 IDC       International Data Centre, CTBTO

The reasons why the UNSC should not be extended by new permanent members

 The problem with the SC enlargement is that the country to enter will be under great (and dirty) pressure from the West to obey (economic sanctions, civil unrest like color revolutions, election fraud/pressure, conflicts with neighbors, ... so many examples we see now) and there are no countries that can survive except Russia and China. They are already in the SC. Countries like South Africa or Brazil will be converted into the West servants in a few weeks. India is on the side of the West already as the elites are fully British. Who else? Germany and Japan are deeply Nazis and inhumane in the eyes of the international community (Do you remember what Japan made in China and Korea ?). No UNSC permanent member except the US will allow them. Mexico? Egypt? These countries will be devastated if will not serving to the US as they depend on it.

At the end of the day, any new UNSC permanent member will ally with the West by force or gold. The overall conditions will deteriorate in the not-western countries as a result. All not-western countries have to assist Russia and China to create conditions when the new UNSC member will obey the international law, not the US-invented-on-the-fly rules.

Anti-war movement is not possible in the US anymore

Do not forger that the hippie anti-war movement was the reaction of rich young people to evade mandatory military service in Vietnam. The best way to avoid military call was to change location (old VW on the road) and appearance (long hairs and unusual clothing). Ladies accompanying these nice (coward) people were just a cherry on the cake. When the war ended, the movement was dissolved as fog in the morning. The change is military organization (voluntary service) in the US made the anti-war movement weak and almost unnecessary. People from the rusty belt, farmers, and people of color are currently consider the army service. Only people in the far tails of the normal distribution of passion in the population participate in anti-war actions.

Don't buy Patriot. Buy Kinzhal and you need no Maverick!

Five launchers and radar were destroyed by the Kinzhal attack on May 16 in Kiev. The loss is about 1 billion dollars.  The most advanced Patriot with AI control was placed within the civilian Kiev and this was one of the protection measures used by ukrainians - take hostages from their own population. These details are important because the most advanced Patriot system together with Italian and Norwegian local anti-missile systems failed in extremely favorable conditions.   I do not understand the US and Germany who supplied two Patriots to Ukraine.  They likely know Kinzhal characteristics and could calculate risks to be demolished in the first attack – shame. 

There was a famous movie Maverick displaying the importance of extremely talented pilots to accomplish a difficult mission against a well-protected (likely Russian)  object.  I watched the first several minutes of the film because Maverick was needed since no missile can do the job. This is a lie, I thought; Kinzhal can easily do it. And it can destroy a highly protected object. 

Buy Kinzhal and you will no need to spend your money on idiotic Maverick movies. Reality is much more exciting. Also, this world changed on May 16. No protection exists anymore for cities, military objects, or ships (aircraft carriers). Anything and anyone can be destroyed with Mach 10 to 12 speed. 

How many Kinzhals are needed to put down Raytheon?

Patriot integrated system was broken in Ukraine by Kinzhal hypersonic missile. This was not 1 of 8 cheap launchers but the extremely expensive control part of the system. All Patriots in the world are now in danger of total destruction by hypersonic missiles which are available not only from Russia, but also many leading non-western countries successfully develop similar weapons (likely with Russian assistance). At the end of the day the overall anti-missile system of the integrated west are just a waste of time and money. The same is with the aircraft carriers protecting sea routs to numerous military bases. No supply rout is safe now. Raytheon does not look a safe investment in the long run.