The US is in recession, but there is a bigger long term problem

Technical recession in the USA is formally announced by two subsequent quarters with a negative growth rate. A new recession definition was introduced at the beginning of the 2000s in order to cover the 2001 announced recession originally based on the -1.3% growth rate measured for this year. In the comprehensive GDP revision (every 5 years or so)  the 2001 GDP value was re-estimated to +0.8% and the recession had to be denounced. The Great American Economists and Bureaucrats gave a new recession definition which is vague but essentially is based on the broader view on economic health like employment and the like.  As a result, 2001 is a recession year with positive real GDP growth (I like this oxymoron). The current situation with two subsequent quarters of economic fall is hard to assess in terms of the new definition and the GAEB take an advantage of uncertainty indicating that the rate of unemployment is low. This would be a correct interpretation of the new recession definition perverted from the 2001 case. There are two important parameters however which tell a different story about the labor force. Figure 1 demonstrates the evolution of the labor force participation rate, LFPR, since 1948.  The black line shows the BLS annual estimates and one can see that the LFPR fell from 67.1% in 1998 to 61.7% in 2021. This is a dramatic fall. The working age population (civilian noninstitutional) in 2021 was approximately 261 million. the difference of 5.4% gives more than 14 million people out of the labor force compared to the 1998 LFPR. The 3.6% unemployment rate is historically low but it cannot compensate for the LFPR drop. It was around 5.5% in 2001.  

The red line is a mirror reflection of the observed LFPR curve relative to 2000. I mentioned approximately 15 years ago that the Kondratieff wave has had a falling branch in the US since 2000 and this prediction is still working excellent. The red line shows that this is a periodic process with a period of 60 to 70 years. The US LFPR is on a falling curve down to 59% around 2030.  The long-term labor force fall is the real challenge to the US economy.

The employment-population ratio, EPR,  in Figure 2 is even more illustrative. The periods of fast growth in the EPR are repeated as the periods of dramatic fall. The synchronization is amazing.  The EPR has to drop to 55% around 2030. This will be a painful fall for the whole economy.  The current surge in immigration is a good response to the challenges - the mechanical growth of the US population since the 1980s gave around 1.1% of the total real economic growth. In the 2000s, the immigration influx was only 0.5% to 0.7%. 

Figure 1. 

Figure 2

Каково будет число замерзших стариков в ЕС и Британии следующей зимой?

В Британии давно обнаружили, что зимой умирает гораздо больше стариков (например это статья в Guardian). Одна из причин - отсутствие денег на отопление. Для Британии это оказалось не проблемой - умирают, ну и пусть умирают. Это их личное дело. Интересно, такой же эффект отсутствия денег на отопление может быть в Германии и других европейских странах? Судя по ценам на отопление в Британии следующей весной найдут гораздо больше замерзших стариков. Пенсионные фонды будут довольны. Но число жертв санкций в ЕС и Британии превысит потери Украины в войне. Пока никто не думает о политических последствиях.

Дегуманизация — простой, но обязательный шаг к созданию робота-человека в ближайшие полвека.

 Тенденция инклюзивности/гендеризма является подготовкой к плавному переходу к симбиозу человека и компьютера. Маск и Ко добились хороших успехов в области интерфейса мозг-компьютер. Прямой переход от человека к роботу имеет сильную реакцию отталкивания, уходящую корнями в эволюцию. Дегуманизация — простой, но обязательный шаг к созданию робота-человека в ближайшие полвека. Западное общество находится на полпути от точки невозврата. Робо-человек дает начало новому полу, и инклюзивность делает этот переход возможным и незаметным.

Dehumanization is a simple but mandatory step to create a robo-human in the next half-century.

The inclusivity/genderism trend is a preparation for a smooth transition to human-computer symbiosis. Musk and Co have good progress in the brain-computer interface. The direct jump from human to robot has a strong repulsion reaction rooted in evolution. Dehumanization is a simple but mandatory step to create a robo-human in the next half-century. Western society is halfway from the no-return point. The robo-human gives a start to a new gender(s) and the inclusivity makes this transition possible and invisible.

GDP price index in the US shows inflation rate of 7.5% for 2022Q2

The real problem of the US economic agencies is not the second quarter of negative real GDP growth but the increasing GDP price index inflation of 7.5% (Figure below). This is a very large value and demonstrates the broadest increase in prices throughout the whole US economy.  This time extremely large inflation is accompanied by the technical recession  (two consequtive qurster with neagative real GDP growth).  There is no sign of the inflation rate decrease in 2022Q3 (but not in 2023). The increasing rate of price inflation suppresses economic activity: overall economic uncertainty rapidly rises and the overnight borrowing rate must be increased by the FOMC.

If gender is a social construct ...

If gender is a social construct then any human being has a unique gender (sex) that can change at any time and absolutely individually. This means that there is no gender minority - a quantum of gender is an individual person different from any other individual person. This is a full human right for anyone to define personal sex and nobody can argue about or challenge any other person's sex. Sexual individualism does not prohibit organizing social groups of interest like "males", "females", ... but these groups are absolutely voluntary and do not create any majority to be blamed. We know very well that the number of genders has been increasing at an accelerating speed and the individual sex approach is the high limit case (two genders is the low limit case). The acceptance of individual gender resolves the discussion around the number of genders between various groups as a fully inclusive approach. Because I propose this idea in this post my gender is defined as gender #1. There are around 8,000,000,000 new gender opportunities.

каждый человек имеет свой индивидуальный пол (как ДНК), изменяющийся индивидуально

У каждого человека есть свой индивидуальный пол, причем изменяющийся таким образом, что никогда не повторяется ни у кого кроме одного человека. Это предельный случай разнообразия полов. А кто будет возражать, тех на цугундер за оппортунизм. В нынешнем мире выигрывает всегда тот, у кого больше полов.