The mean income gap between white males and black females grows during the democratic presidencies

Two days ago, we compared the mean income evolution of the white and black population and demonstrated that the difference did not change much since the 1980s. Finer details might be more graphic and Figure 1 shows that the mean income of white males is now 1.72 times larger than the man income of black females. In 2019, the black males earned 1.21 times more than black females.  The relative values are important and demonstrate some convergence between various population groups but they are partially misleading since the absolute difference in mean income might be more painful. Moreover, the absolute difference may reveal important details which are ironed out in the relative representation.

In Figure 2, the difference between the real mean incomes of the white males and black females is shown. One can see that the difference was growing between the 1950s and 1070s and reached its peak in ($30,599) in 1973. It has been oscillating between $28,000 and $25,000 ever since. It is interesting that since the 1980s the difference grows during the democratic presidency and falls during the republican one. Having President Biden representing Democratic Party, one can guess that the absolute gap between white males and black women will be growing in the years to come. During the Trump period, the difference did not move much. 

Figure 3 shows that the difference between the white and black population mean income was stable between the late 1980s and the mid-2010s. During the Trump period, the mean income of white females surged, and the overall difference increased from $11,312 in 2016 to $13,244 in 2018. 

 Figure 1. The ratio of white male/ black female and black male/black female mean incomes

 

Figure 2. The difference between white male and black female mean income

Figure 3. The difference between the white and black  population mean income

The US lost face - Biden called Putin

On April 9, I wrote that the US is losing face in the Russia-Ukraine escalation. It really happened and Biden called Putin putting forward the Global stability issue. Essentially it means that the US blinked first and the agenda and terms of the proposed Summit (which is extremely important for global stability) will be formulated by Putin. Otherwise, the Summit will not happen. The lesson learned is that the aggressive counteraction on the brink of global extinction is not acceptable for the US establishment. This is a powerful tool to push own interests through. The next time, the readiness of Russia to defend existential interest will not be tested by the West.   

The third Japanese COVID-19 wave and Tokyo Olympiad

The growth in the daily number of new COVID-19 cases is observed in Japan. It started in the middle of March. The second wave was approximately 4 months long. Considering a higher activity and personal communication related to the 2020 Tokyo Olympiad one can make a thought experiment and project a possible repetition of the second wave extending into the mid-summer.  The Japanese population also does not find the idea of the Olympiad in 2021 too attractive.  I do not expect that the 2020 Summer Olympics will be declared open in 2021.  

A quick comparison of the mean income growth of the white and black population as well as males and females

New income data are available for 2019 and it is a good time to revise the estimates of our income evolution model. The model includes the difference (actually disparity) between genders and races observed since 1947, when personal incomes were measured the first time. Figure 1 shows the evolution of mean income (for people with reported income) since 1947 for males and females, black and white. One can see that the most recent development is the fast growth in females' mean income since 2014. Effectively, white females ($43,315) almost caught black males ($45,103) in 2019.  The effect of 2020 pandemic is of great interest. 

In Figure 2, the male/female mean income ratio for the white and black populations is compared. In the 1940s, the ratio was high but similar for black and white people. With the increasing females’ participation rate in the 1960s and 1970s, the ratio grew to its maximum for white people but decreased for the black population. Currently, white males get 1.5 times more than white females and the rate of convergence between two genders has been deceleration since 2010. For black people, the ratio was 1.2 in 2019. 

Finally, Figure 3 demonstrates the ratio of mean incomes of white and black people. In 1950, it was 1.85. With the increasing labor force participation rate for white females between 1960 and 1980, the disparity fell to 1.4. This was mainly the effect of lower mean incomes for white females, as one can judge by the curves in Figure 1.  In 1980, the ratio was 1.38 and in 2018 reached 1.35. Effectively, the mean income of the black population is 1.35 times lower than the mean income of the white population during the last 40 years. 

 Figure 1. Mean income for four race/gender combinations.

 

Figure 2. The ratio of male/female mean incomes for black and white people

 

Figure 3. The ratio of the mean income of the white and black population.

Поздравляю всех с Днем Космонавтики!

Это замечательный праздник для всего мира. Юрий Гагарин изменил нашу жизнь - началась новая эпоха.   

The US is losing face in the Russian escalation and open the road to Paris

The current escalation of the conflict on the Russian border looks like a game of nerves. Russia has declared an existential threat and is ready for any war including the global nuclear one. The US cannot decide to participate in the nuclear war against Russia because  Biden is a weak point. The decision on war made by himself will be considered as a hallucination of the old mind by the majority of the population and the decision made by real power behind his shoulders will be considered as a conspiracy of the deep state. Both decisions will likely be considered illegal and never implemented by militaries. This means to lose face and demonstrate weakness. Effectively, then there is no obstacle for Russia to conquest entire Europe without a single shot. The escalation works only when one is ready to cross Rubicon and lose everything. West is not ready to lose anything.     

Biden's dog Major is the best expression of aggression and fear in WH

 The dog is just an animal with normal Pavlov reflexes. Anybody having a dog knows very well that it often feels the host's mood.  The crowd around Biden (team) is likely full of aggressive thoughts, revenge, and fear. Biden's dog Major is not aggressive - it does what it must - defends the host.  No training will help - the atmosphere is driving the dog.