Mortality statistics does not provide LGBTQ+ split. Why?

 I wonder why the mortality statistics contain gender (male and female) and race split but no sexual self-identification? Does that mean that this identification is not applicable to the dead?

Army considers change to Combat Fitness Test scoring for male, female soldiers

Army considers change to Combat Fitness Test scoring for male, female soldiers: The reevaluation of the Army Combat Fitness Test comes weeks after Congress delayed its implementation over concerns the new test created an unfair disadvantage to female soldiers.

Interesting story. I wonder that in critical conditions men and women are different in physical capabilities. That's obvious statistically and genetically (height, weight, muscular strength, body proportions, etc.). Who could even imagine that women can fit men's tests and proposed to match the same requirements? Look at sport  - records are quite different and the statistics of achievements definitely show that the average levels differ significantly. 

EU bureaucracy failed in the 2020 crisis

In this blog, a thorough economic study was presented which showed that France and Italy lost their economic and financial power after the start of the Monetary Union. Several individual cases were combined in an academic paper.    Le Figaro article "«La crise du Covid ou le début de la fin de l’Union européenne?» stated a new problem - the EU failed in vaccination crisis. The UE has no responsibility for people as such. The Le'Figaro article suggests Frexit as a solution to the problem. i.e. the same solution as I proposed considering poor economic performance within the  EU monetary system

Actually, the EU bureaucracy is not responsible for anything, and its operational speed corresponds to the absence of responsibility for real life. This is a very strong argument in favor of effective management - psychopaths without empathy are always most effective in capital management. However, COVID19 is not about effectiveness. It is about human lives, the EU failed. Recently, Austrian Bundekanzler Kurz claimed that vaccine distribution in the EU was not proportional and secret agreements between the EU medicine authorities and some (not openly named) countries led to preferences in human life protection. I was very optimistic about the EU's future a year ago and now I am disappointed. 

What is the difference between Chernobyl, Fukushima and Texas blackout

 All of these are catastrophic events with human lives lost. The Chernobyl nuclear reactor runaway is fully a personal responsibility. A nuclear reactor is not a good place for experiments. Such experiments are prohibited now. Fukushima is a technical problem with risk underestimation. This is an example of a black swan or a statistically infinitesimal event out of normal distribution. Technically, one can easily resolve this issue.  Texas blackout in February 2021 is a new type of event. There is no technical solution yet. Renewable energy sources are fundamentally unreliable and the interaction of the state-of-the-art windmills or solar panels with the potential weather outliers is inevitable in the future.  People will die in progressive numbers with the growing part of RES (however, hydropower and nuclear power are RES as well). 

Russia and EU

 I have presented in this blog the economic growth dispersion in the EU and highlighted the difference between Germany and other biggest countries - France, Italy, and Spain. The EU suffers significant economic problems with varying growth rates and economic power as expressed by price-setting capabilities that only grow with time. Economic problems make the EU very vulnerable in political and social dimensions. Russia takes the opportunity to intensify the internal conflicts in the EU by rejecting cooperation with the EU as such, i.e. with the countries with anti-Russian agenda. Germany is the main beneficiary of the economic links with Russia and this effect is also seen in the coherent and extremely fast economic growth in both countries. Nord Stream 2 makes Germany an unbeatable European power with the lowest energy cost so important for the exports - the driver of the German expansion. Russia shakes the EU in an attempt to strengthen the bi-lateral links. For Russia, political and economic relations with the EU have no sense anymore after the COVID-19 response,  deeper economic fall, and the police actions against peaceful demonstrations. Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, etc.)  is seen as a major loser, traitor, and unreliable partner in the eyes of the less developed countries. It is the best time to make bi-lateral connections and the EU showed that individual EU members are eager to save themselves. So, the time to split the EU is perfect for Russia and China.  The US only helps by supporting selected EU members. 

From blog to working paper: The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries

 The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries

Abstract

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun’s law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and unemployment rate between 2010 and 2019. The initial results show that the change in unemployment rate can be accurately predicted by variations in the rate of real economic growth. There is a discrete version of the model which is represented by a piecewise linear dependence of the annual increment in unemployment rate on the annual rate of change in real GDP per capita. The lengths of the country-dependent time segments are defined by breaks in the GDP measurement units associated with definitional revisions to the nominal GDP and GDP deflator (dGDP). The difference between the CPI and dGDP indices since the beginning of measurements reveals the years of such breaks. Statistically, the link between the studied variables in the revised models is characterized by the coefficient of determination in the range from R2=0.866 (Australia) to R2=0.977 (France). The residual errors can be likely associated with the measurement errors, e.g. the estimates of real GDP per capita from various sources differ by tens of percent. The obtained results confirm the original finding on the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries.

From blog to a working paper: Real GDP per capita: global redistribution of economic power

 I published several posts in this blog and found it appropriate to compile a working paper. I did the same trick with other papers in the past. Blogging really helps. 

Real GDP per capita: global redistribution of economic power

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc with a constant numerator which varies for the largest developed economies. In 2006, a statistical analysis conducted for 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2003 showed a very weak linear trend in the annual GDPpc increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada showed a slightly steeper positive linear trend. The 2012 revision showed that the positive trends became much lower and some of them fell below zero due to the Great Recession. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with heavy and asymmetric tails. This research revises the previous estimates and extends the set of studied countries by economies in East Europe, Latin America, BRICS, Africa, and Asia including several positive outliers with extremely fast growth. The change in GDP definitions and measuring procedures with time and economic source is discussed in relation to the statistical significance of the trend estimates and data quality requirements for a consistent economic model. The relative performance of all counties since 1960 is compared according to the predicted total GDPpc growth as a function of the initial value. The performance in the 21st century is analyzed separately as revealing potential and actual shifts in the global economic powers.