Watching blockbuster "Biden"

In the absence of blockbusters, I am going to watch Biden following his promises

1. COVID-19. 100 million by 100 days (my estimate of success probability 30%). Reason - there are forces interested in failure. Thrilling

2. Taxes. Increasing taxes will likely suppress the US economy, which is not in a good shape already. China fills the US markets.

3. Iran deal. I have no clue what may happen - all actors have positions different from the original.

4. 75,000,000 for-Trump voters, which are real persons with families. I expect that some of Biden supporters will try to punish them. It will be a fantastic show. The whole world prepares popcorn: Rocky Balboa vs Ivan Drago.  

5. Police and army. These people are mainly conservative and it is not clear why they have to shot their own legs

6. The US demonstrated the clear weakness of institutes and the recovery can be only kind of overshooting, i.e. a mid-size war. Hopefully, Russia is not the goal

Berlin authorities placed children with pedophiles for 30 years

 

Deutsche Welle: Berlin authorities placed children with pedophiles for 30 years

Crimea. The difference between the OECD and TED/MPD political approaches to economic statistics.

 Following our previous post comparing Russia and Ukraine, we have checked the Russian population estimates from the Total Economic Database of the Conference Board and the OECD.  Comprehensive data comparison includes population counting because it is used in the per capita estimates, which is an economic variable best describing the real economic performance of a given economy. As we reported, the TED likely includes the population of Crimea in the total Russian population. Figure 1 shows the evolution of the total population in Russia since 1960. There is a significant step in the total population between 2013 and 2014, i.e. the year of Crimea reunification with the Russian Federation.

Since we compare three major sources of economic information (TED, Maddison Project Database, and the OECD) it is instructive to present the OECD estimates. As mentioned before, the MPD and TED population estimates for Russia are identical.  In Figure 1,   includes the OECD population estimates for Russia and demonstrates the deviation from the TED in 2014. There was no reunification according to the OECD. It is another example of a political approach to economic data. As more independent economic sources, the TED and MPD demonstrate an economic approach to economic parameters. The OECD is driven by the policies of the state parties of the organization. At the same time, the MPD and TED do not exclude Crimea from the Ukrainian economy. The OECD does not publish data for Ukraine but one can suggest that the Crimean economy is somehow included in the Ukrainian economic statistics. Such an approach would introduce significant bias in the Ukrainian economic statistics due to the large differences in economic performance. Figure 2 presents the annual population increment and highlight the spike in 2014 in the TED data.

 

Figure 1. Total population in Russia since 1960. There is a step from 2013 to 2014 in the TED estimate.

 

Figure 2. Annual population increment in Russia as reported by the TED and OECD.

Real GDP and population in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the Maddison Project Database and the Total Economy Database. Crimea

 In one of the previous posts, we compared the evolution of real GDP per head in Russia and Ukraine since 1980. Data obtained from the Maddison Project Database (MPD) were used. After the detailed comparison of the data from the MPD, Total Economy Database, and the OECD, we found that the GDP per capita estimates can differ dramatically between these sources. In order to get a less biased comparison, we have to revisit our estimates and extend the set of data sources. Since Ukraine is not included in the OECD database, we limit comparison in this post to the TED and MPD.

Figure 1 compares the real GDP per capita evolution in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the TED and MPD. The reference years are different, and thus, the levels also differ between these two sources. The normalization to the corresponding levels in 1980 allows a comparison of the relative growth. Figure 2 displays the normalized curves. The relative performance of Russia and Ukraine is quite different for the MPD (large difference) and the TED (much smaller difference). Figure 3 displays the ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and Ukraine for these two sources. The TED gives the total difference of 1.4 in 2018 and the MPD estimates the same difference as 1.74. Such discrepancy is commonplace in the MPD and TED data. It is difficult to judge which estimate is more accurate: the TED usually gives larger growth to the USA and the MPD more generous to European countries. Both could be biased.

The Maddison Project Database does not explicitly provide the real GDP estimate. The TED includes such an economic series among many others. Figure 4 depicts the real GDP in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 (in 2019 $). The ratio of the GDPs reaches 7.44 in 2019, but evolution is also important for the relative performance comparison.  Figure 5 presents the same curves as in Figure 4, but normalized to their respective levels in 1970. One can see that the current real GDP in Ukraine is just 61% of the peak level in 1989. This low value is partly explained by the falling population in Ukraine. Figure 6 shows the evolution of the population in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED. Both time series are normalized to the 1970 levels. There is a significant increase in the Russian population from 2013 to 2014 and a similar but much smaller decrease in the Ukrainian population. The increment is 2,594,000 and the fall in Ukraine lasts a few years with a total of ~1,000,000 between 2013 and 2016. It looks like the TED added the Crimean population to Russia but did not subtract it from Ukraine. The MPD population estimates are identical to the TED.   

Figure 1. Comparison of real GDP per capita evolution in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the TED and MPD. The reference years are different and thus the levels also differ between these two sources.

Figure 2. The relative performance of Russia and Ukraine as represented the GDP pc curves normalized to their levels in 1980. 

Figure 3. The ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and Ukraine for the TED  and MPD data

Figure 4. Real GDP in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED.

Figure 5. Same as Figure 4, but normalized to the 1970 levels. 

Figure 6. The evolution of the population in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED.

creeping google

 I am removing Big Tech applications from my devices (and devices). Never used Twitter and killed my Facebook account ten years ago. Last week removed Chrom and replaced google search. reduced the use of gmail to a minimum with the goal of zero use. Ready to remove WhatsApp and move to something not so fa*cy. 

And after all, got a message that Fitbit is bought by google. I use Fitbit couple of years and now what - through it away and buy Garmin?

Also, i am going to remove this blog. Blogs seem to be an obsolete activity.

Comparison of real economic growth as expressed by GDP and GDP per capita

 There is an obvious difference in the estimates of real economic growth as expressed by real GDP and GDP per capita. The former includes the growth in population, which may be related to different sources: higher birth rates, lowering mortality rate, and net migration. There are countries with the population growing exponentially, e.g. the USA. Some developed countries do not demonstrate significant population growth. A few countries have a negative population growth forecast in the coming decades, e.g. Germany. It is interesting to compare real economic growth in developed countries using both variables. A series of figures below present various cases and illustrate the difference between the studied developed countries. We also present a table summarizing the study. The main goal is to highlight the importance of the growing population for fast economic development. The extensive economic growth is not unlimited, however. The US population is currently growing at a slower rate than in the 1990s even with intensified migration processes. 

While you fight for other people non-economic rights capital privatizes your wages and salaries

 Personal income in the USA is the key indicator of the money share between labor and capital. Figure 1 shows personal income in nominal dollars at a quarterly rate. The employee share is defined by the “Compensation of employees’ and in a narrow sense by “Wages and salaries”.

Figure 2 demonstrates that the share of personal income related to “compensation of employees” has been decreasing since the 1970s, and lost almost 5% between 2004 and 2012. This dramatic fall is related to “wages and salaries”. People lose income for their jobs and this lost income fled to those who own the capital.   Figure 3 illustrates the share of wages and salaries in the compensation of employees. It dropped by almost 15% between 1948 and 1994.   

Figure 1. Nominal estimates of personal income, compensation of employees, and wages and salaries in the USA since 1947.  

 

Figure 2. The shares of “Compensation of employees” and “Wages and salaries” in the “Personal income”, as presented in Figure 1. The period since 2000 is presented separately to highlight the fall in the shares of personal income. 

Figure 3. The ratio of “Wages and salaries” and “Compensation of employees”.