Real GDP and population in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the Maddison Project Database and the Total Economy Database. Crimea

 In one of the previous posts, we compared the evolution of real GDP per head in Russia and Ukraine since 1980. Data obtained from the Maddison Project Database (MPD) were used. After the detailed comparison of the data from the MPD, Total Economy Database, and the OECD, we found that the GDP per capita estimates can differ dramatically between these sources. In order to get a less biased comparison, we have to revisit our estimates and extend the set of data sources. Since Ukraine is not included in the OECD database, we limit comparison in this post to the TED and MPD.

Figure 1 compares the real GDP per capita evolution in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the TED and MPD. The reference years are different, and thus, the levels also differ between these two sources. The normalization to the corresponding levels in 1980 allows a comparison of the relative growth. Figure 2 displays the normalized curves. The relative performance of Russia and Ukraine is quite different for the MPD (large difference) and the TED (much smaller difference). Figure 3 displays the ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and Ukraine for these two sources. The TED gives the total difference of 1.4 in 2018 and the MPD estimates the same difference as 1.74. Such discrepancy is commonplace in the MPD and TED data. It is difficult to judge which estimate is more accurate: the TED usually gives larger growth to the USA and the MPD more generous to European countries. Both could be biased.

The Maddison Project Database does not explicitly provide the real GDP estimate. The TED includes such an economic series among many others. Figure 4 depicts the real GDP in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 (in 2019 $). The ratio of the GDPs reaches 7.44 in 2019, but evolution is also important for the relative performance comparison.  Figure 5 presents the same curves as in Figure 4, but normalized to their respective levels in 1970. One can see that the current real GDP in Ukraine is just 61% of the peak level in 1989. This low value is partly explained by the falling population in Ukraine. Figure 6 shows the evolution of the population in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED. Both time series are normalized to the 1970 levels. There is a significant increase in the Russian population from 2013 to 2014 and a similar but much smaller decrease in the Ukrainian population. The increment is 2,594,000 and the fall in Ukraine lasts a few years with a total of ~1,000,000 between 2013 and 2016. It looks like the TED added the Crimean population to Russia but did not subtract it from Ukraine. The MPD population estimates are identical to the TED.   

Figure 1. Comparison of real GDP per capita evolution in Russia and Ukraine as reported by the TED and MPD. The reference years are different and thus the levels also differ between these two sources.

Figure 2. The relative performance of Russia and Ukraine as represented the GDP pc curves normalized to their levels in 1980. 

Figure 3. The ratio of GDP per capita in Russia and Ukraine for the TED  and MPD data

Figure 4. Real GDP in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED.

Figure 5. Same as Figure 4, but normalized to the 1970 levels. 

Figure 6. The evolution of the population in Russia and Ukraine between 1970 and 2019 as reported by the TED.