2/6/22

The most efficient policy for Russia is to retain the highest tension with Ukraine with the help of West 2. Russia will invade when the West stops talking about it.

The current hysterical company in media and official sources like the state department and department of defense about the imminent Russian invasion gives a good handicap to Russia. The no-reaction policy makes the hysteria only worse because nothing happens in reality and the stakes have to be increased. Otherwise, the interest of the broader public will drop to the level where  CNN is hovering. The public trained by the mainstream western media cannot focus on something more than a few seconds. Only an increasing heap of dead bodies can retain the interest.  If nothing happens, everyone understands that this is poor comedy or fake news. 

Russia is silent and reports no plans of invasion. The troops are in regular dislocations.  Only when the western hysteria calms down ( just a few weeks more the attention can be retained without the imminent backfire from the public) to the level of indifference and the Ukrainian resources are exhausted the invasion time will come. As an alternative, the unprovoked attack of the Ukrainian troops (well documented by visual and other physical tools as it was in Georgia 2008) will break the peace under the Minsk Protocol. In the conditions of the Russia-USA talk on global security, this will be the cart blanch for Russia to use all military and technical means for self-defense. The West position will be undermined. 

I would suggest that the second variant is better for Russia. Putin said a very simple phrase - "the decisions centers will be attacked". This is almost all European countries and many more helping Ukraine will weapon and people. It will be a legitimate action.    

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