10/16/21

The most dangerous feature of renewable energy becomes even more threatening

Shimmy effect was always the principal problem of renewable energy. Shimmy was introduced as a term to describe a visible or tactile shake of a weel, sometimes with increasing amplitude leading to mechanical damage.  (Shimmy is also a jazz dance.) The effect of still weather and lower insolation in 2021 led to a dramatic fall in wind and solar energy production - up to 30% relative to the previous year. This fall was not expected as one can judge by a catastrophic increase in the electricity price in 2021. The amplitude of 30% is a huge one considering that this is not the largest possible amplitude. having a measured fall of 30% one can expect 50% in the worst years. This will stress the economic system more than now. The opposite extreme of a +50% renewable energy spike is even more dangerous for the economy - it will kill the energy production industry - from coal to nuclear. The economy will not be able to compensate for the next 30% fall which is very likely as we observe it now.  The shimmy effect cannot be designed out of the system but has to be damped by some mechanism counteracting the disturbing force. In other words, one needs a reliable source of energy that can compensate for at least a 50% fall in renewable energy production. The larger is the share of renewable energy, the large is the size of the reliable energy source to compensate for the variations in renewable energy. For a 100% of Renew. Energy in a given country one needs a source to compensate for 50% of it. 

Essentially: “My dear, here we must run as fast as we can, just to stay in place. And if you wish to go anywhere you must run twice as fast as that.”

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