3/28/21

Epic-epic fall in the French economy in 2020

In economic terms, France is one of many losers in the EU (see this post).  Figure 1 demonstrates that the real GDP per capita has been growing at a very slow pace since the mid-1990s.  In 2019, it topped at $43,062 (constant 2015 US dollars) as reported in the OECD database. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic ruined the French economy and the curve in Figure 1 fell to $39,457, i.e. by $3605 (see Figure 2). (In Austria, the absolute fall in 2020 was $3,705.) This fall returned the French economy in the mid-2000s.   

If to convert the absolute fall in the real GDP per capita into the relative fall one obtains 9.3%, i.e. much larger than 7.55% observed in Austria (see Figure 3). The COVID-19 situation in 2021 does not demonstrate positive signals with the accelerating increase in the number of new cases in March and the absence of an accelerating rate of vaccination. The French economy has long-term problems with real growth and one of the largest falls between the EU countries in 2020 induces a further drop in the economic influence of France within and outside the EU. France will soon fall to the third basket of economic powers closer to Poland. 

Figure 1. Evolution of real GDP per capita in France according to the OECD database.

Figure 2. Evolution of real GDP per capita in France according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is $3705 (constant 2015 US dollars).


Figure 3. Evolution of the growth rate in real GDP per capita in France according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is 9.3%. 

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