PREDICTING REAL ECONOMIC GROWTH IN FRANCE, GERMANY, NEW ZEALAND, AND THE UNITED KINGDOM

Journal of Applied Economic Sciences (JAES) has published the spring issue with my paper:

Ivan O. KITOV, 2010. "Predicting Real Economic Growth In France, Germany, New Zealand, And The United Kingdom," Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 5(1(11)_Spr), pages 48-54.


Abstract
The growth rate of real GDP per capita is modeled and predicted at various time horizons for France, Germany, New Zealand, and the United Kingdom. The rate of growth is represented by a sum of two components – a gradually decreasing trend and fluctuations related to the change in country-specific age population. The trend is an inverse function of real GDP per capita with constant numerator. Previously, similar models were developed and validated for the USA and Japan.

Keywords: real GDP per capita, modeling, prediction, population

JEL classification: E1, E3, O4, O5