2/22/22

For Russia it is the best time to ruin Ukraine economically

As I mentioned before, the economic failure of Ukraine is the aim of Russia. Panic of the imminent war ignited by the US and the West as a whole made its work and Ukraine lost tens of billions of dollars and have a negative rating for investors. This is good news for Russia to make an important step to add some uncertainty in the heads of politicians and militaries - recognition of the Lugansk and Donezk Peoples Republik. The war against the Republics is not an option anymore and the Ukrainian army lost its aim and nerve . Essentially, this army is an aimless collection of people with dangerous weapons most appropriate for small rebel groups to loot as it was in the Russian Empire Civil war 1917-1923s. 

The next obvious step for Russia is to switch off the light and allow robbery throughout Ukraine. Diesel fuel (for tanks, for example), electricity, uranium rods for the power stations, coal, etc. is supplied mostly by Russia (4 bn dollars, approximately). I do not say about obvious energy source - natural gas not transported through the Ukrainian pipeline leg. The best time to strike, as I said before, is the next spring cold wave. People will start fighting for energy. In the panic or hysteria state, it is a likely outcome.  If President Zelenskii will be evacuated by the West - this will be the best signal to star robbery. 

 

2/19/22

The reason why EU security does not depend on the EU

The EU complains that Russia should discuss European security with the EU, not with the US. This is a very strange complaint considering the fact that Russian security ultimately depends on the presence of nuclear weapons in Europe. This weapon is fully controlled by the US together with the cruise missile launch facilities in Poland and Romania, and thus, the EU has no relevance to Russian security as such. The small details of mediocre local forces in some European countries make no difference to Russian security. Only screams. 

Scholz and genocide in Donbass. Germans are still Nazists

Chancellor Scholz commented on the statement of President Putin that the Ukrainian Nazists killed the civilian population in Donbas and this is the genocide of the Russian population. Scholz said that this is "unacceptable". Kremlin reacted appropriately:

“This is not for German leaders to make a joke of genocide issues,” the Russian foreign ministry said, according to Interfax. 

Germans are still Nazists and support Ukrainian Nazists with swastikas covering their bodies (ignored by the West) because they are Nazists. The genocide of  Herrero and Nama in Namibia in the 19the century was just the beginning of the long genocide story of Deutch Leute. It seems this story will not be over before the Germans understand their responsibility or disappear. 

2/14/22

Inflation in the USA: highly transient and not persistent

The consumer price index for all items changed in the USA by 7.5% from the previous year. This is the highest change since the 1980s. One may overestimate the importance of this jump in prices for the economy. The situation in the 1970s and 1980s is quite different from the current one, however. The historical inflation was driven by economic factors - dramatic growth in the labor force associated with the growth in the labor force participation rate for women. This process ended when nearly 90% of women joined the labor force in the early 1980s compared to less than 50% in the 1960s. The current situation with the labor force is the opposite (the participation rate has been decreasing since the late 1990s) and the real economic forces suggest deflationary processes. 

Money printing is the reason for the observed price increase in the USA. This time the money was delivered directly to people and businesses unlike during the period between 2008 and 2020. Essentially, the same volume of goods and services was matched by a larger amount of money. As a result, the price increased by the printed amount as was shown in my previous posts. This effect is monetary but has no economic reasons behind it. The price can increase only once without further money printing. Moreover, the increased amount of money was paid once and cannot be repeated. The price jump was a one-off event and related inflation is transient. Therefore, there are two reasons for the prices to plummet - monetary and economic. Some kind of idea storm ...


2/13/22

The most efficient policy for Russia is to retain the highest tension with Ukraine with the help of West 3. Ukraine disintegrates with increasing speed

 The Ukrainian economy disintegrates at an increasing rate due to the efficient actions of the West. The chaotic events with evacuating Ukrainian citizens and businessmen, western embassies, and local authorities make the Russian position stronger every day. Zelenskii is crying already that there is no Russian threat and everything is under control. Biden says that the invasion is inevitable in a few days. Russia waits before the next freezing weather condition but it is not to invade. The reason is simple - stop the energy supply to Ukraine to destroy the energy system and stop nuclear stations. This will ruin Ukraine as an economic and social system and the army will freeze. Just a few cold days.  

2/10/22

Либеральная европа не сильнее природы или "Ветер, ветер! Ты могуч ...

В предыдущем посте были рассмотрены консервативные и либеральные оценки статистической значимости при принятии решения. Примером необдуманного либерального решения, к котором риски были недооценены, а выгоды переоценены, является переход на зеленую энергию в европе. Либеральная мысль была ослеплена великой идеей слияния с природой и использованием неисчерпаемой энергии ветра. Я  согласен с неизбежностью перехода на возобновляемую энергию, так как ресурсы ископаемого топлива ограничены. (Ядерная энергетика это часть возобновляемой энергии, так как возможен переход на итеративный цикл, когда радиоактивные отходы атомной станции становятся ее топливом.) Однако переход к энергетике возобновляемых источников требует точного научного знания и тщательного анализа рисков. Нельзя просто сказать:"Ветер, ветер! Ты могуч, ..." и забыть "Не боишься никого, Кроме бога одного.", то есть забыть о неподвластности ветра.  Западные либералы, конечно, лишены возможности читать Пушкина. Но это не меняет важности наблюдений за вариациями скорости ветра, которые хорошо известны, на принятие решений. В интернете можно найти все что угодно, но оказывается трудно найти графики изменения скорости ветра или выработки ветряной энергии. Я нашел ссылку на измерения скорости ветра в европе в 2021 по данным, опубликованным в твиттере Copernicus ECMWF. В 2021 году скорость ветра была значительно ниже, чем в среднем за десятилетие. Очевидно, что отклонения от среднего могут достигать больших значений, но с уменьшающейся вероятностью. Я не смог найти статистических оценок распределения средней скорости ветра в европе, но именно они должны были быть основой принятия решения при переходе на возобновляемую энергию. Кроме того, эти оценки должны обсуждаться экспертами и обществом, так как самые негативные эффекты перехода испытывают самые незащищенные люди - старики, большие семьи, ...

Можно предположить, что при принятии решения о переходе на зеленую энергию такие негативные последствия не были приняты во внимание или они были известны, но не считались негативными. Это пример принятия решения с высоким значением альфа. Ошибка второго рода - принятие неверной нулевой гипотезы. На авось, как говорят в России. Или еще того хуже, так как этот пожар пытаются залить бензином, то есть строительством еще большего количества ветряных мельниц. Поэтому либералам нельзя разрешать управлять государством. Даже таким большим как ЕС. 

2/9/22

Why liberals should not be allowed to run the state.

The division into conservatives and liberals can be carried out according to the alpha value - the level of statistical significance. Accepting your level of significance when making a decision determines how much you are averse to risk and how much you desire victory. The result of the decision may be successful or erroneous. Everyone hopes for success, but the decision itself is made taking into account a possible error. Conservatives are more prone to type I errors - the correct null hypothesis (false positive, erroneous rejection) is rejected, that is, the null hypothesis of success under known external conditions must be extremely reliable. It's better not to do it than to make a mistake. Liberals do not see a big problem in failure and are prone to type II errors - the wrong null hypothesis is accepted (false negative, erroneous acceptance). Emotionally and rationally, we perceive people as conservative or liberal precisely by their decisions. Parents are often conservative, as they do not allow children to make mistakes. Liberal people advise you to live your life and make your mistakes, even if such mistakes may be irreparable. 

What type of mistakes people try to avoid and at what level the balance of benefit and risk is determined for each person by innate properties and early development. Among people, there is a certain distribution according to these parameters and therefore there are no pure conservatives and liberals (you can see this on the graphs in the book by J. Haidt "The righteous mind"). Different levels of statistical significance are accepted by people on specific occasions.

Liberalism is better in private life, as the losses are private and have no multiplier effect. Scientists adhere to the trial and error method - the repetition of experiments and measurements in different conditions. Testing many hypotheses, including statistically unreliable ones, makes it possible to find new areas of research and even discover new branches of science. Therefore, their approach is extremely liberal, as long as it does not concern megaprojects.

Conservatism has advantages at a high level of organization, from the firm to the state, as it minimizes the likelihood of catastrophic losses, such as when making investment decisions. The collapse of the securities market is the result of an extremely conservative approach to money. Delegating small research projects to a low level - a start-up - is a way of mutually reinforcing the liberal and conservative approaches.

The use of liberal methodology at the state level increases the likelihood of a catastrophe. Therefore, the number of conservative states is a survival statistic. Practically all countries are conservative: governments with large budgets, army, intelligence, homeland security, police, courts, prosecution, etc., and often use liberalism as a weapon against more conservative countries. A liberal state can make many good decisions, but one bad one kills it. The conservative may not grow as fast, but will not be hampered by dangerous decisions. Conservatism and liberalism is your assessment of risk and reward (risk and reward are difficult to measure in real life) when making a decision. Haidt points to the possibility that this is a fundamental property of decision-making on an emotional rather than a rational level. Without liberals looking for something new, mankind would most likely live on the trees and hide from the tigers. Without conservatives guarding achievements and traditions, sometimes wrong, mankind would hardly have survived to this day. Everyone is needed, but everyone should understand where he is more useful. I would not trust liberals with the highest state power. By definition, their decisions are riskier. 

Drang nach Osten — «натиск на Восток»

ИИ гугла написал « Drang nach Osten — «натиск на Восток») — это исторический термин, обозначающий германскую экспансию на славянские и восто...