Boeing Starliner is an imminent risk for the ISS

The start of Starliner from the ISS  is postponed to June 26. The problem is not identified. This is an awful message. Someone sends a dangerous object into space. Columbia and Challenger likely did not make  enough dead crew members. The risk assessment was not adapted to the US low level of technical skills. The danger to the ISS is not clear as the problem is not identified, but the risk level is not adequate to the potential benefits of the commertial usage of poor prepared space vehichles from the company known by low technical control. 

Yemen in Red Sea

In 1999, Jamie Shea - NATO secretary, put forward a genial phrase on the NATO bombing of civilian objects in Yugoslavia: "Miloshevich can always surrender to stop it". It occured to be a universal formula. Now one can say: the shipping companies can surrender, Israel can surrender, NATO can surrender, the US can always surrender to stop these attacks. Baerbock from Germany once said that Russia commits war crimes when bombing power stations openly admitting that NATO commited war crimes in Yugoslavia. She never said it again. So, it's not a war crime to attack civilian constructions as ships etc. NATO and Israel can always surrender.

Boeing Starliner will bring you to a star. Follow Space Shittle?

 Starliner made by Boeing is out of order. The ISS is in danger due to multiple problems created by Boeing. It seems Starliner may go the way of Columbia and Challenger. The Space Shuttle program of the US was a technical and PR disaster - 2 from around 100 missions failed with 14 innocent human beings died in agony. 

Questions after the flood in Germany

What’s scary is not climate change itself, but the fact that under this slogan nothing useful is being done for people’s safety. If all weather processes are increasing in amplitude, then why has the risk for dams and river beds not been calculated? Apparently, only processes in the future are well calculated. But for the current ones there are no data and models. It’s very similar to “during this time, either the donkey will die, or the padishah, or...”. There is a suspicion that disasters like this will occur more and more often. If all measures had been taken on time (such a flood had already happened here 100 years ago), then no one would have noticed this and the slogan about a “climate catastrophe” would not have been confirmed. But if we do nothing, we will have a remarkably terrible picture. 

Вопрос после наводнения в Баварии

страшно не само изменение климата, а то что под этот лозунг ничего полезного не делается для безопасности людей. Если все процессы увеличиваются по амплитуде, то почему не произведен расчет рисков для дамб и русел рек? Видимо, только процессы в будущем хорошо просчитываются. А для текущих нет данных и моделей. Очень похоже на "за это время или ишак умрет, или падишах, или ...". Есть подозрение, что катастрофы типа этой будут все чаще происходить. Если все меры были бы приняты вовремя (такое наводнение здесь уже было 100 лет назад), то этого никто бы не заметил и лозунг о "климатической катастрофе" не получил бы подтверждения. А вот если ничего не делать, то будем иметь замечательно ужасную картинку.

The advanced real GDP estimate for Q1 2024 should be around 3% per year

Today is the day of principal economic statistics - real GDP estimate for the first quarter of 2024. The mechanical real GDP growth continues in the USA due to population growth as related to the unprecedented immigration by ~2% of population per year. As expected by the WSJ experts, the growth at annual rate (quarterly rate times 4) should be around 2.4% .  In my view, the rate will be much higher, at least 3% as the population provides 2% and the intensive growth (as defined by real GDP per capita) can be around 1%, which is little lower than the long-term expectation between 1.5% and 2%. Let's see the result and discuss it later.

The state of the US economy is controversial from the point of view of the mainstream economics - fast economic growth and high inflation accompanied by fast labor force growth. The latter pair is strange for the mainstream approach - the labor market is not strained but inflation is high. In other words, people are ready to work for less money and easily enter labor force but prices grow. My model links the labor force growth with price increase through the density of income distribution and predicts higher inflation when labor force grows fast as in the 1970s and 1980s.

If the Fed rate will be cut by political reasons