7/28/22

GDP price index in the US shows inflation rate of 7.5% for 2022Q2

The real problem of the US economic agencies is not the second quarter of negative real GDP growth but the increasing GDP price index inflation of 7.5% (Figure below). This is a very large value and demonstrates the broadest increase in prices throughout the whole US economy.  This time extremely large inflation is accompanied by the technical recession  (two consequtive qurster with neagative real GDP growth).  There is no sign of the inflation rate decrease in 2022Q3 (but not in 2023). The increasing rate of price inflation suppresses economic activity: overall economic uncertainty rapidly rises and the overnight borrowing rate must be increased by the FOMC.




7/15/22

If gender is a social construct ...

If gender is a social construct then any human being has a unique gender (sex) that can change at any time and absolutely individually. This means that there is no gender minority - a quantum of gender is an individual person different from any other individual person. This is a full human right for anyone to define personal sex and nobody can argue about or challenge any other person's sex. Sexual individualism does not prohibit organizing social groups of interest like "males", "females", ... but these groups are absolutely voluntary and do not create any majority to be blamed. We know very well that the number of genders has been increasing at an accelerating speed and the individual sex approach is the high limit case (two genders is the low limit case). The acceptance of individual gender resolves the discussion around the number of genders between various groups as a fully inclusive approach. Because I propose this idea in this post my gender is defined as gender #1. There are around 8,000,000,000 new gender opportunities.

7/14/22

каждый человек имеет свой индивидуальный пол (как ДНК), изменяющийся индивидуально


У каждого человека есть свой индивидуальный пол, причем изменяющийся таким образом, что никогда не повторяется ни у кого кроме одного человека. Это предельный случай разнообразия полов. А кто будет возражать, тех на цугундер за оппортунизм. В нынешнем мире выигрывает всегда тот, у кого больше полов.

7/9/22

What if the next Biden's gaffe will be " We declare war on ..."

The last gaffe with the teleprompter reveals the fact that Biden does not control what he reads. Normal filters are working well and people understand what to read. Movies make a lot of fun when somebody reads or repeats something not to be repeated. There is however a question of the words from the Biden's mouth would mean some world changer. If a hacker replaces the "repeat the line " with " The US declares war on ..."? It will not be possible to take back such a statement or explain it with a gaffe. It will be a disaster. 

7/8/22

Когда инфляция цен на энергию и продовольствие прекратиться и кому будет труднее всего покупать нефть и газ

Так как инфляция это скорость роста цен (изменение, например, за год), то даже если нынешняя цена энергии и еды останется на одном уровне, то инфляция будет высокой, так как относится к периоду год назад, когда цены были низкими. Даже если цена будет немного падать, инфляция будет высокой. Через год постоянной цены инфляция станет нулевой сама по себе. Но цены останутся высокими, что опасно для уровня конкурентности производства, если Китаю, Индии, ... нефть достается дешевле. Все страны, производящие энергоносители, заинтересованы перейти к торговле с длительными контрактами. И как можно больше выкачать из стран переходящих на ветер и солнце. Даже Норвегия.

7/2/22

Japan is the weakest G7 chain link

Putin has signed an important executive order to return Sakhalin-2 project to Russian jurisdiction.  This is an important move to demonstrate sovereignty and also punish Japan. The dependence of Japan on external energy sources is likely the highest among the G7 countries and the loss of cheaper natural gas from Sakhalin-2 will result in severe problems. The alternative is simply to lift the sanctions against Russia. With 40C temperature, the lack of energy may have catastrophic consequences for people and industry. Interesting prisoner's dilemma. I guess Japan is not a priority for the Japanese government. It is also important that Japan is the most hated country in the region with the Koreans, Chinese, etc. praising any trouble for Japan. 

7/1/22

Russian gas flow to Germany - a typical prisoner's dilemma

A typical game theory strategy is the prisoner's dilemma. If Germany wants to destroy the Russian economy in several years by canceling imports of oil and gas, then Russia should supply as few resources as possible in order to maximize profits in the short term due to rising prices and destroy the German economy, since Germany will cease to be a consumer anyway in a few years. The rest of the oil and gas sellers in the world are also taking advantage of the situation, maximizing their profits in the short term, as Germany is likely to refuse their services within five years. Nash would praise Russia and the others. No cooperation is a wise strategy. 

Now on arXiv.org "Effects of stochastic and natural seismic noise on the performance of waveform cross-correlation used to recover low-magnitude seismicity prior to the July 29, 2025, Kamchatka earthquake"

arXiv.org link :  [2607.16226] Effects of stochastic and natural seismic noise on the performance of waveform cross-correlation used to reco...