What if the next Biden's gaffe will be " We declare war on ..."

The last gaffe with the teleprompter reveals the fact that Biden does not control what he reads. Normal filters are working well and people understand what to read. Movies make a lot of fun when somebody reads or repeats something not to be repeated. There is however a question of the words from the Biden's mouth would mean some world changer. If a hacker replaces the "repeat the line " with " The US declares war on ..."? It will not be possible to take back such a statement or explain it with a gaffe. It will be a disaster. 

Когда инфляция цен на энергию и продовольствие прекратиться и кому будет труднее всего покупать нефть и газ

Так как инфляция это скорость роста цен (изменение, например, за год), то даже если нынешняя цена энергии и еды останется на одном уровне, то инфляция будет высокой, так как относится к периоду год назад, когда цены были низкими. Даже если цена будет немного падать, инфляция будет высокой. Через год постоянной цены инфляция станет нулевой сама по себе. Но цены останутся высокими, что опасно для уровня конкурентности производства, если Китаю, Индии, ... нефть достается дешевле. Все страны, производящие энергоносители, заинтересованы перейти к торговле с длительными контрактами. И как можно больше выкачать из стран переходящих на ветер и солнце. Даже Норвегия.

Japan is the weakest G7 chain link

Putin has signed an important executive order to return Sakhalin-2 project to Russian jurisdiction.  This is an important move to demonstrate sovereignty and also punish Japan. The dependence of Japan on external energy sources is likely the highest among the G7 countries and the loss of cheaper natural gas from Sakhalin-2 will result in severe problems. The alternative is simply to lift the sanctions against Russia. With 40C temperature, the lack of energy may have catastrophic consequences for people and industry. Interesting prisoner's dilemma. I guess Japan is not a priority for the Japanese government. It is also important that Japan is the most hated country in the region with the Koreans, Chinese, etc. praising any trouble for Japan. 

Russian gas flow to Germany - a typical prisoner's dilemma

A typical game theory strategy is the prisoner's dilemma. If Germany wants to destroy the Russian economy in several years by canceling imports of oil and gas, then Russia should supply as few resources as possible in order to maximize profits in the short term due to rising prices and destroy the German economy, since Germany will cease to be a consumer anyway in a few years. The rest of the oil and gas sellers in the world are also taking advantage of the situation, maximizing their profits in the short term, as Germany is likely to refuse their services within five years. Nash would praise Russia and the others. No cooperation is a wise strategy. 

If liberal thinking has a natural boundary it has to be considered as conservative thinking

We observe the time of actual liberal thinking in action in western countries. The power of liberalism is tremendous and is used for changing this world into a new state. For a conservative, any current state is a value to fight for. According to J.Haidt, there are values like sanctity (power of divinity), authority (power of experience), and loyalty (power of group work or coalition), which attract conservatives more than liberals.  Essentially, these values define the difference between conservatives and liberals. Fairness and care are the only two values attracting liberal minds. It is strange but statistically Liberty as a moral foundation belongs to both groups equally. 

The practical liberalism we observe now gives us experimental material to project the future of the society if it will be progressing along the liberal avenue. First of all, it is clear that liberalism is very inventive in defining fairness and care conditions with any outlier to be considered as an object of fairness and case with the interest inversely proportional to its abundance. The number of outlier cases is diminishing accordingly as liberal activists work hard and this makes the future of liberal thinking to be grim. If they stop finding new objects for case and fairness they become conservatives defending the current state of society. When a liberal will say " top here" a more liberal person has to blame this liberal as a conservative. This process is endless. I guess that the next step will be to define some parts of human bodies as independent entities. This process can go down to elementary particles and quantum states in accordance with Penrose's ideas. This would be the end of liberalism and the Conservative Kingdom will reign forever.

One graph shows why US inflation has monetary nature and why will end in catastrophic deflation

The discussion on the reasons behind and responsibilities for the price inflation in the USA can be illustrated in one graph in Figure 1 - the ratio of personal income and GDP as measured by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. The COVID-driven extra money supply or so-called "helicopter money" (Bernanke loved this idea) was not connected to any economic activity. The ratio in Figure 1 below demonstrates that the share of PI was 105% in 2020Q2 with a long-term average of 85%.  This is 20% of GDP which were not a usual component of the Gross Domestic Product, i.e. 20% of helicopter money/ One can call this money a direct dollar devaluation. The price reaction is clear - the whole set of goods and services just jumped to the new price of the dollar to equalize supply and the new demand. 

In 2022Q1, one can see that the PI/GDP ratio is back to the long-term trend and no helicopter money is left in the economy, but the prices now include the helicopter money at the new PI level of around 100% of the GDP. There is a time delay of approximately 1.5 years between money injection into the economy and price increase. In Figure 2, the PI/GDP ratio is synchronized with the CPI inflation rate scaled to the PI/GDP level in order to stress the coherent evolution. Inflation represents the integral change in helicopter money. In the second half of 2021 and in 2022, we observe an abrupt decrease in the money supply  (such an artificial surge in money supply has never been observed in the past in the USA) will induce an abrupt price fall in the near future - deflation. A new portion of helicopter money is the remedy to avoid deflation now. But the deflationary potential is increasing proportionally. 

Figure 1. PI?GDP ratio since 2000

Figure 2. The current CPI (blue dots) delays by approximately 1.5 years behind the money injection. The shifted CPI (red dots) is synchronized with the money injection as expressed by the PI.  In the near future (likely in 2022Q4 or 2023Q1), the CPI will fall below the zero line.

All dollars will be lost in time, like tears in rain. Time to die.

The Russian money frozen in the US, Europe, Japan .... was real before this action took place. This action actually revealed a frightening reality - money does not exist. There exist an "agreement" to consider some electronic records or pieces of paper as payment mean. This agreement is supported by power - the power or crude force. This power can print any amount of "money" dissolving the essence of this term. We are moving back to the physical exchange of goods and services. Dollars will be lost in time ...