Grim news. The labor force participation rate in the USA on its free fall to 58% in 2030

We have presented in this blog the concept of Kondratiev wave many times.  The essence of Kondratiev’s approach consists in the existence of very long period (60 to 80 years) social/demographics, and thus, economic waves. The term “wave” is used to express the periodic character in the evolution of economic parameters with approximately constant amplitude.

The figure below shows the evolution of the labor force participation rate, LFPR,  in the USA since the 1950s, when a stationary economic regime was established after WWII.  In order to predict the future development in the LFPR, we use the principal characteristic of periodicity – symmetry relative to peak points. The black curve in the figure represents the BLS data. The most recent value of 61.6% for June 2021 was published on July 2. We present annual readings to iron out the short-term variations. The red line represents the black one inverted in time and synchronized near the peak around 2000. The red line is the prediction of the future LFPR.

Originally, we presented such a curve in 2004-2006, i.e. very close to the peak value, with the same prediction of the long-term decrease in the LFPR to below 60% near 2030. Fifteen years of gradual fall in the LFPR match our prediction extremely accurately. The force of natural oscillations in the demographic, social, and economic evolution is unbeatable.

The recovery of employment in the USA after the deep fall in the 2020 pandemic is not accompanied by a significant increase in the LFPR – the June 2021 value (61.6%) is below the average in 2020 (61.7%).  With the falling LFPR, the rate of unemployment has to be considered in a different way. The fall from 67.1% in 1999 to 61.7% in 2020 means that that 4.4% of the civilian noninstitutional population, CNP, left the labor force by various reasons. With the estimated CNP of 260,000,000 in 2020, one has almost 6,000,000 less than expected with the peak LFPR observed in 1999. The number of unemployed is around 9,500,000 in June 2021.  If to consider these 6,000,000 as unemployed instead of leaving the labor force, one would obtain the rate of unemployment of 9.2% (15,500,000 unemployed with the civilian labor force of 167,000,000! Therefore, the effect of leaving the labor force may be more dramatic than the unemployment itself in the near future when the LFPR will fall to 58%.

The US economy is on a recovery path after the pandemic. The 10-year forecast is not so bright, however. The labor force participation rate will be falling.

 

 

 

Слишком рано обсуждать результат сборной России на ЧЕ по футболу

 Нет никаких сомнений, что сборная выглядела слабо во всех трех матчах турнира. Однако эта слабость была показана в играх с вполне определёнными соперниками. Тут мне пришел на ум пример, приведенный Джорданом Питерсоном о своем приятеле, который считал себя неудачником по сравнению со своим соседом по общежитию. Сам приятель был профессором и известнейшим специалистом в своей области. А вот его соседом был Илон Маск. 

Поэтому мне хотелось бы дождаться финала турнира и посмотреть по сравнению с кем наша сборная была слаба. Примеры Германии, Франции, Голландии, Португалии показывают, что сила на этом турнире не слишком соответствует общему рейтингу. Если в финале будут играть Бельгия и Дания или хотя бы одна их этих стран выиграет турнир, то относительная сила сборных будет выглядеть по другому.  

Greenpeace is a piece of brown sh..: Greenpeace activist hurts Germany-France football match audience

Greenpeace is a bunch of mad activists attacking peaceful people. A paraplanner with a Greenpeace logo landed directly on the audience before the France-Germany football match and hurt a few. People worldwide learned important lessons from this action: Greenpeace activists are insane, Greenpeace activists are not accountable; Greenpeace activists reckless, Greenpeace activists are not professional; Greenpeance activists do not care about people (except themselves?). 

This kind of behavior is the Greenpeace visit card, but this time they attacked a wrong target.

G7 = USA (genocide of native population) + Germany (occupied by the US Nazi country), Japan (occupied by the US, Nazi allies), Italy ( Fascists), Canada (accommodate Nazi criminals), Australia (genocide of native population), Great Britain (world's top murderer).

These people rule the world. 

When Maricopa county vote audit proves fraud - will Putin and Xi consider Biden as a legal US president?

The Maricopa county vote audit is a watershed for president Biden. The statistics of voting in Russia were discussed in this blog. The deviations from standard statistical distributions (like normal) were considered as a systematic fraud by the extension of a few cases to the whole voting process. The same is applicable to the USA. When the fraud will be opened and highlighted one should expand the fraud concept to all complaints since this fraud is systematic. When the fraud is proven, Biden will lose legitimacy as a president in eyes of the world leaders in conflict with the US - Putin and Xi. I wonder what will be with the world security then.  

Biden at G7. Russia and China are safe. Biden will send missiles to Marssia and Chinus

Biden's speech on the situation in Lybia has a direct implication. He does not remember anything he prepared for weeks (Jill Biden version). Moreover, this mistake might be the result of long preparation. His mental capacity is not enough to take onboard Lybia and Syria together. No new information is stopped inside. China and Russia are safe. Biden will likely send missiles to Marssia and Chinus.  This is the leader of the real world of freedom -  people were free of mind when voted for this clown.

For Putin, it would be wise to postpone the summit with Biden by two weeks

Biden took a longer tour and a lot of meetings with various agents before the meeting with Putin. The internal temperature in Biden's team is closer to the boiling point. The expectations and promises are enormously high. The West is waiting for the punishment and execution even if the reality could be the opposite. Construction of virtual reality by social networks and mainstream media is commonplace and the result of the meeting is already known for the team. The West wins anyway. Even when lost. Biden is fully equipped and ready physically and emotionally. 

For Putin, it would be wise to postpone the meeting by two weeks using some small reason. Biden's team will let off steam. Expectations and promises will ruin. The Maricopa county vote audit will be finished and will possibly kill Biden's legal status as president   Biden's shape will degrade both physically and mentally. Fake news will rotten. All in all, the game will be inverted. 

I am sure, Putin has a plan for how to do this artistically. The best would be to refer to confidential "highly likely" security issues related to the summit place or  Biden's health.