The US is losing face in the Russian escalation and open the road to Paris

The current escalation of the conflict on the Russian border looks like a game of nerves. Russia has declared an existential threat and is ready for any war including the global nuclear one. The US cannot decide to participate in the nuclear war against Russia because  Biden is a weak point. The decision on war made by himself will be considered as a hallucination of the old mind by the majority of the population and the decision made by real power behind his shoulders will be considered as a conspiracy of the deep state. Both decisions will likely be considered illegal and never implemented by militaries. This means to lose face and demonstrate weakness. Effectively, then there is no obstacle for Russia to conquest entire Europe without a single shot. The escalation works only when one is ready to cross Rubicon and lose everything. West is not ready to lose anything.     

Biden's dog Major is the best expression of aggression and fear in WH

 The dog is just an animal with normal Pavlov reflexes. Anybody having a dog knows very well that it often feels the host's mood.  The crowd around Biden (team) is likely full of aggressive thoughts, revenge, and fear. Biden's dog Major is not aggressive - it does what it must - defends the host.  No training will help - the atmosphere is driving the dog.

ЕС как реинкарнация нацисткой Германии

Продвижение ЕС своих "ценностей" полностью аналогично продвижению своего арийского превосходства нацисткой Германией. Почти все европейские страны поддержали Гитлера (ссылка на фильм о приветствии Гитлера в Австрии), чувствуя то же превосходство, что и немцы (кстати, королева Англии тоже зиговала). В ЕС снова выросло чувство собственного превосходства, теперь это ценности за пределами ВДПЧ. Но пахнет это нацизмом, и тут трудно скрыть острое чувство превосходства европейцев. Кончится это как всегда. Но в этот раз союзников из ЕС не надо отмазывать от трибунала.

EU as a new Nazi superstate

Almost all European countries (maybe just except Poland and UK) participated in WWII on the side of Nazi Germany and shifted to the Allies' side as traitors (practical joke - Austria admiring Hitler in 1938 is a victim of Nazism). The general mood in these countries was based on the acceptance of the supremacy of European nations over the "less developed counties" or "Untermenschen". (In the UK,  many celebrities also saluting Hitler). The SS Division Charlemagne was French by the nation of origin and we have numerous examples of high exasperation in the war against the Allies (USSR, USA, UK, and partly Poland). The current wave of the supremacy of the EU uses "Values" instead of upright Supremacy, but this substitution looks childish - the EU stinks with supremacy. Interestingly, Poland is a part of the EU and still against its values, but the UK is finally on the EU values side.  Actual humanitarian values are well described in the Universal Declaration of Human Rights. Any change to this document has to be only by consensus and any country or union trying to change or block the UDHR has to be punished and was with Nazi Germany and its allies. Formally, the EU is a new Nazi superstate stating and forcing supremacy of its values not shared by the majority of states and population. The outcome of such a move is always the same - failure. This time the participants have to be punished according to their guilt.

Spain to fail

 After a period of active growth between 2013 and 2019, Spain experienced the worst single-year economic fall.  Together with France and Italy, Spain has been losing positions in the club of the biggest economies after the introduction the Economic and Monetary Union. In this blog, I recommended France, Italy, and Spain to leave the EU as Germany squeezes them as a piton.  The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic for Spain was much worse even than for France and Italy. Figure 1 demonstrates that the real GDP per capita has been growing at a relatively good pace before the Great Recession. Between 2008 and 2013, Spain fell back to the 2001 level. In 2019, real GDP per capita in Spain was $38,128 (constant 2015 US dollars) as reported in the OECD database. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically reduced the Spanish economy. The curve in Figure 1 fell to $33,750, i.e. by $4,379 (see Figure 2).

This fall is larger than in France, Austria, but it is lower than the UK ($4,538).  In relative terms, the fall in the real GDP per capita was 13.0%, i.e. worse than in the UK with 11.6% (see Figure 3). The COVID-19 pandemic in 2021 is still far from normal with the third wave coming before the end of the second wave. The slow growth rate together accompanied by an extremely high unemployment rate (16.3%) indicates that the Spanish economy has clear long-term economic and social problems. 

Figure 1. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Spain according to the OECD database.

Figure 2. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Spain according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is $4,379 (constant 2015 US dollars). 

Figure 3. Evolution of the growth rate in real GDP per capita in Spain according to the OECD database. In 2020, the overall fall is 13.0%, which is much larger than in 2009 – 5.0%.

 

Economically, Italy dropped into the mid-1990s

Since the introduction in the EU of a monetary union (around 1995), Italy has been suffering the worst period with several consecutive economic falls. In this blog, I recommended France and Italy to leave the EU as Germany squeezes them as a piton.   The 2020 COVID-19 pandemic for Italy also was much worse than for Germany. Figure 1 demonstrates that the real GDP per capita has been growing at a relatively good pace before 2000, and then a series of no-growth and fall episodes returned the Italian economy to 1995, i.e. to the start of the Monetary Union. Essentially, Italy lost 25 years for nothing in economic terms and this finding goes together with the incredible growth of Germany.  In 2019, real GDP per capita in Italy was $38,717 (constant 2015 US dollars) as reported in the OECD database. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic dramatically reduced the Italian economy. The curve in Figure 1 fell to $35,450, i.e. by $3,267 (see Figure 2).

This fall is smaller than in France, Austria, and the UK.  However, if to convert the absolute fall in the real GDP per capita into the relative fall one obtains 9.2%, i.e. almost the same as in France (9.3% fall) (see Figure 3). The COVID-19 situation in 2021 is not promising with the third wave coming before the end of the second wave. Therefore, the Italian economy has clear long-term economic and financial problems. Figure 3 shows that the trend in the rate of economic growth is negative since 1970, but the years after 2000 are the worst – just above or below the zero line.

Figure 1. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Italy according to the OECD database.

Figure 2. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Italy according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is $3,267 (constant 2015 US dollars). 

Figure 3. Evolution of the growth rate in real GDP per capita in Italy according to the OECD database. In 2020, the overall fall is 9.2%, which is much larger than in 2009 – 6.2%. The trend in the rate of economic growth is negative since 1970, but the years after 2000 are the worst – just above or below the zero line.

 

German real GDP per capita fell by 5.2% in 2020. Not bad relative to France and the UK

In relative terms, Germany is one of a few gainers in the EU. The real GDP fall was much smaller than in France and Austria.  Figure 1 demonstrates that the real GDP per capita has been growing at a healthy pace since 1970 - $593 per year.  In 2019, it reached $49,991 (constant 2015 US dollars) as reported in the OECD database. In 2020, the COVID-19 pandemic affected the German economy and the curve in Figure 1 fell to $47,506, i.e. by $2,485 (see Figure 2). (In Austria, the absolute fall in the real GDP per capita in 2020 was $3,705, in France $3,605, in the UK - $4.584.) The same level was observed in 2015.  In 2020, the GDP per capita fall was just marginally larger than that observed in 2009 - $2,418. Therefore, the Great depression has the same impact on the German economy as the COVID-19 pandemic. It might be related to the industrial orientation of the German economy and more competent reaction to the pandemic as expressed by much lower numbers of COVID-19 cases and fatalities. The stability of the German industry is based on the availability of materials and energy. This makes the Nord Stream 2 a vital asset for further economic progress. There are different views on the German future. For example, Greens are aimed at the conversion of the German economy into a post-modern country living on donations.  The highest technical skills will degrade and the economic power of Germany will decrease. The beneficiaries of this process are obvious. It will be similar to the degrading economic status of France in the EU after the Monetary Union was introduced but on the global scale.

 

If to convert the absolute fall in the real GDP per capita into the relative fall one obtains 5.2%  with 5.7% in 2009 (see Figure 3), i.e. much lower than 7.55% observed in Austria, 9.3% France, and 11.6% in UK. The COVID-19 the situation in 2021 is still difficult with vaccination problems, lockdown measures, and extensive anti-covid protests. The German economy has good long-term perspectives of real growth.

Figure 1. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Germany according to the OECD database.

Figure 2. Evolution of real GDP per capita in Germany according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is $2,485 (constant 2015 US dollars). 

Figure 3. Evolution of the growth rate in real GDP per capita in Germany according to the OECD database. The 2020 fall is 5.2% with 5.7% in 2009.