Hollywood gave us movie stars protecting everything that matters. Where are these stars now? Reality does not comply with movies - the movie starts are the fake stars and Hollywood is actually Hollyfake. Of course, this is obvious and does not deserve another mention, just disappointment when this fake dream factory announced restart.
6/6/20
Police officers are not robots
I was trying to
apply the liberal approach to human (and not only) beings with basic rules of freedom and fairness (as
per Haidt) to police work. And found no reason for police officers to protect
other people based on fairness to the police officers (they are expected to be
violent to other people) and freedom of their ultimate choice to protect
themselves. Now I understand that liberals consider police officers as robots
with The Three Laws invented by Isaac Asimov back in the 1940s. However, police officers are not robots and,
considering the liberal approach (i.e. no authority, no loyalty, no sanctity) they
have to follow the opposite rules:
First Law
A police officer must protect only own existence, also for the sake of
people who love them.
Second Law
A police officer must obey the orders given by the immediate commander only (not
by any other human beings) except where such orders would conflict with the
First Law.
Third Law
A police officer may not injure a human being or, through inaction, allow a
human being to come to harm except where such orders would conflict with the
First or Second Law.
I think the Buffalo police officers who left special
team observe these three rules and showed their protest to be considered as robots following The Three
Laws. This gives me some optimism about what will happen in the US after the current
unrest and protests calm down. I hope people will respect the police officers
as human beings. Otherwise, the police will be fully demoralized. To protect
people, the police officers have to demonstrate loyalty to the team and people,
follow the authority of commanders, and believe that they may sacrifice their
livers for better life for their relatives and others. Currently, the authority
and society demonstrate that they consider the police officers as robots following
the rules invented by Asimov.
6/5/20
What frightens the most in the USA protests
US capitalism was an exemplary success for other
countries for decades. It deserves all praises but we lost some frightening
processes behind the polished face for the outer world. This is the major turn from the industrial
driver demanding more and more qualified labor (it took just a few decades to
poison The Great Lakes for the sake of industrial growth) to a monstrous mow quaffing everything. The US
capital lost its inherent advantage of job creation because the economic efficiency
is not technologically creative anymore - it is aimed at over-consumption
through services. Job is not a measure of success. Now it is status consumption,
which cannot cover the whole population. The US is not a country of consolidated
progress - it is the country of separation and segregation. People cannot encash
their capabilities to work and produce goods and services because their value-added is below the marginal cost for the most efficient capital growth. These
people consciously or unconsciously go to protest since the standard democratic
procedure does not work ( the last attempt was with Trump elected to return
industry and lower increase the marginal cost by tariffs and so on, but the
capital resistance is too strong). The current peaceful protest wave is the
expression of the deepest fear in the hearts of millions lost jobs, losing jobs, or vulnerable to job loss. The US is not a good place for masters. And this
conflict in the US society, which cannot be resolved in a democratic way with both
parties struggle for the same consumption position not for economic progress, frightens the most. Сapitalism does not bite its own tail - it changes its skin. Nothing personal - just business.
6/3/20
Many people in the US are weak and worthless. They can only protest
The current protest wave in the US is driven by feelings of weakness and worthlessness. When people in democratic countries can change the status they do not like they go to elections and vote for the political power which can change their lives for better. This is not what we see in the USA. The problem ignited fierce protests and violence has been tackled (but not solved) for centuries. It will not be resolved after this wave calms down - it cannot be resolved without political agreement on the importance to follow the recommendations of the UN (Alston) report - Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights on his mission to the United States of America.
This protest is not a surprise and almost all countries in the world can give similar examples of weakness and worthlessness when interacting with the US.
This protest is not a surprise and almost all countries in the world can give similar examples of weakness and worthlessness when interacting with the US.
5/30/20
Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights on his mission to the United States of America
Who read this report understands what happens in the USA
Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights on his mission to the United States of America :
Unfortunately, statistics show that almost nobody cares about any of the problems:
Report of the Special Rapporteur on Extreme Poverty and Human Rights on his mission to the United States of America :
Unfortunately, statistics show that almost nobody cares about any of the problems:
5/22/20
some ideas how to study the current change in income distribution
1. In physics, there is no one process and related equation, which can explain real object behavior in sub-critical and super-critical state. As an example, the crash of a concrete cube under compression. Elastic law is working before the cube starts to crack and the relationship between stress and deformation fails and the exact number and size distribution of cracks do no follow from or described by the same elastic process parameters. Instructively, the size distribution of cracks is close to a power-law, i.e. similar to the Pareto distribution of high incomes. Therefore, I doubt that the distribution in the low-income range and in the Pareto zone can be described by one process/equation. However, we can estimate the critical pressure and describe the evolution of each crack as well as their interaction when knowing their positions from measurements.
2. Some potential value for the description of the Pareto law has the process of two-exponential growth (size and local measurement/stopping time - Huges ... ). The exponential growth in the labor force (US population has been growing at a rate of ~1% per year in the previous half-century) and GDP per capita (however, this growth is rather linear) might result in a power-law distribution in two asymptotic cases. Has to be modeled and evaluated.
3. The sudden drop in employment/labor force and GDP per capita, GDPpc, presents the best opportunity for the study of the evolution law of income distribution in developed countries. As observed in the US income (CPS) data and described in our model (based on the evolution of linear and nonlinear stresses in solid under deformation with various rates), the overall income distribution and income distributions in various age/gender/race groups evolve according to their dependence on real GDP per capita (taken as an external parameter). Our model can predict the most striking features of the income distribution like the change in the age when the population of a given country with known GDPpc reaches the peak average income. Also, we can accurately predict the decay of growth rate in the incomes of the younger population with increasing GDPpc and the share of the population in the Pareto zone (highest income) depending on age and GDPpc.
4. The 2008 crisis was endogeneous and the income distribution adjusted to the decrease in GDPpc (or even drove the economic crisis), i.e. we observed smooth change in all age/race/gender groups fully synchronized with the GDPpc fall. In other words, the income distribution system is internally reversible, i.e. its behavior is driven by the same equations (our model) in both directions of the GDPpc growth - positive and negative.
5. The coronavirus pandemic presents an external force, which affects the GDPpc and labor force beyond any endogenous economic links. The overall and rage/race/gender income distributions are also changed dramatically during so short time intervals (weeks and tens of percent of change) that the income distribution system is not able to adjust itself to the new state along with its internal (links) processes, as was observed in 2008. Currently, the income distribution is in some metastable state, and thus, will return to its normal (or to some different and likely unpredictable) state by processes not observed in the past. It is possible to suggest that a large portion of people in the lower-income zone are getting even poorer due to job loss and other negative socio-economic processes. At the same time, the richest people are getting richer - the billionaires in the USA got an additional ~500 bn and the number of billionaires increased. The income distribution is highly disturbed in all income-age-race-gender groups and one can trace the evolution of these new distributions to their final state, which can also be the same as observed now.
6. Therefore, the evolution of income distribution in various groups of population (income-age-race-gender) is of principal importance and interest for empirical and theoretical study. The community studying income distribution is waiting for fresh data on income distribution.
2. Some potential value for the description of the Pareto law has the process of two-exponential growth (size and local measurement/stopping time - Huges ... ). The exponential growth in the labor force (US population has been growing at a rate of ~1% per year in the previous half-century) and GDP per capita (however, this growth is rather linear) might result in a power-law distribution in two asymptotic cases. Has to be modeled and evaluated.
3. The sudden drop in employment/labor force and GDP per capita, GDPpc, presents the best opportunity for the study of the evolution law of income distribution in developed countries. As observed in the US income (CPS) data and described in our model (based on the evolution of linear and nonlinear stresses in solid under deformation with various rates), the overall income distribution and income distributions in various age/gender/race groups evolve according to their dependence on real GDP per capita (taken as an external parameter). Our model can predict the most striking features of the income distribution like the change in the age when the population of a given country with known GDPpc reaches the peak average income. Also, we can accurately predict the decay of growth rate in the incomes of the younger population with increasing GDPpc and the share of the population in the Pareto zone (highest income) depending on age and GDPpc.
4. The 2008 crisis was endogeneous and the income distribution adjusted to the decrease in GDPpc (or even drove the economic crisis), i.e. we observed smooth change in all age/race/gender groups fully synchronized with the GDPpc fall. In other words, the income distribution system is internally reversible, i.e. its behavior is driven by the same equations (our model) in both directions of the GDPpc growth - positive and negative.
5. The coronavirus pandemic presents an external force, which affects the GDPpc and labor force beyond any endogenous economic links. The overall and rage/race/gender income distributions are also changed dramatically during so short time intervals (weeks and tens of percent of change) that the income distribution system is not able to adjust itself to the new state along with its internal (links) processes, as was observed in 2008. Currently, the income distribution is in some metastable state, and thus, will return to its normal (or to some different and likely unpredictable) state by processes not observed in the past. It is possible to suggest that a large portion of people in the lower-income zone are getting even poorer due to job loss and other negative socio-economic processes. At the same time, the richest people are getting richer - the billionaires in the USA got an additional ~500 bn and the number of billionaires increased. The income distribution is highly disturbed in all income-age-race-gender groups and one can trace the evolution of these new distributions to their final state, which can also be the same as observed now.
6. Therefore, the evolution of income distribution in various groups of population (income-age-race-gender) is of principal importance and interest for empirical and theoretical study. The community studying income distribution is waiting for fresh data on income distribution.
5/10/20
Why so many people lost jobs - overexploitation
One number strikes most - the rate of participation in the labor force dropped to the level of the earlier 60s (60.2%) and much larger unemployment problems for females. What actually happened in the 60s and 70s was the increase in the participation of females, who entered the labor force mostly in the service sector of the economy. It was the time when females started to do accustomed homework (e.g. child and personal care, accommodation and food) for money. Before that happened, this extremely important work was not paid-up by money. When it happened, females entered the world of money and ... now have to pay taxes. Moreover, they now work for capital, which takes approximately 60% of the income (the current share of capital income in the total personal income). It seems to be kind of overexploitation of unessential workers who suffer first because their work can be easily stopped without any essential harm to people life unlike energy and water supply, food production (remember extraordinary measures to protect meat factories), medical services, security like police and army, and so on.
Economically, one could count the homework as a part of GDP as applied to imputed rent, which is never paid as such (various imputations give ~15% of the US GDP with the imputed rent of ~6%). However, the loss of tax and profit, in this case, would be a large part of the Gross Domestic Income. It is clear that the temporarily stopped services will restart soon and the tax and profit will be regained by the state and capital. But the COVID-19 epidemic highlighted many problems in economic theory and real economy. The best time to learn something important for laypeople and scientists. For example, it is clear that some economic definitions and measurements are biased.
Economically, one could count the homework as a part of GDP as applied to imputed rent, which is never paid as such (various imputations give ~15% of the US GDP with the imputed rent of ~6%). However, the loss of tax and profit, in this case, would be a large part of the Gross Domestic Income. It is clear that the temporarily stopped services will restart soon and the tax and profit will be regained by the state and capital. But the COVID-19 epidemic highlighted many problems in economic theory and real economy. The best time to learn something important for laypeople and scientists. For example, it is clear that some economic definitions and measurements are biased.
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