Just an excerpt from our post in 2009.
It is likely that the price index for crude petroleum will be decreasing in absolute terms approaching the level of 60 units in 2016. This corresponds to $22 per barrel.
This is the level which fits the long-term evolution of oil price. Actually, the high price period was a short-term fluctuation and crude will be at a very low price level in the next 10 to 20 years.
At a one-two year horzion, the low oil price will explode the debt market in the USA - from high-tech extraction companies to major oil market players and then to banks.
In one pot with deflation it will cause a longer period of economic depression.
It is likely that the price index for crude petroleum will be decreasing in absolute terms approaching the level of 60 units in 2016. This corresponds to $22 per barrel.
This is the level which fits the long-term evolution of oil price. Actually, the high price period was a short-term fluctuation and crude will be at a very low price level in the next 10 to 20 years.
At a one-two year horzion, the low oil price will explode the debt market in the USA - from high-tech extraction companies to major oil market players and then to banks.
In one pot with deflation it will cause a longer period of economic depression.
Dear Mr Kitov,
ReplyDeleteFirst of all congrats on your blog, you deserve a true following and I'm surprised that there aren't many more comments to your posts. Anyhow, I came across this article published today about "Why the $20 Oil Predictions are Wrong" http://www.resilience.org/stories/2015-08-24/why-the-20-oil-predictions-are-wrong and was wondering whether you might have the time to give it a quick look and react to it, time permitting. I subscribe to your RSS, including for comments. Thanks in advance, Marc