Figure 2. The portion of employed in the working age population, E/POP, compared to the rate of GDP per capita growth, dGDP/GDP.
- He narrowed the period to ten years and thus implied that the headline CPI trend was the same before 2000 and will be extended into the 2010s. Both assumptions are not true.
- The core inflation rate has been on decline since 2007, as Figure 2 shows. Despite very high volatility, the headline CPI always returned to the core CPI level. Our inflation model  shows that the current trend in the core CPI will be retained in the next decade below the zero line. Hence, the overall inflation rate will be also negative. An extended deflationary period will be observed.
Figure 1. Evolution of the price of HOSP and MISS.
According to , the share price model for AVY is still defined by the index of food (F) and that of new and used motor vehicle (NUMV). The former CPI component leads the share price by 4 months and the latter one leads by 2 months. Figure 1 depicts the overall evolution of both involved indices. These two defining components provide the best fit model between July 2010 and March 2011. Relevant coefficients are both negative. The slope of time trend is positive. The best-fit 2-C model for AVY(t) is as follows:
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