12/13/22

As we predicted, CPI inflation much below the forecasted by WSJ. FOMC to reconsider the tomorrow's decision

The current fall in the CPI inflation is down to 7.1% per year and +0.1% in November relative to October 2022. This is much lower than the expected +0.3%, which would mean 7.3% during the past 12 months. I was not too optimistic about waiting for the figures below 7.0%. The 0.1% difference is within the measurement uncertainty and may change in the following revisions. Figure 1 presents the comparison of the PPI (Final Demand) and CPI inflation rates.

The faster-than-expected fall in the CPI inflation will change the FOMC consideration tomorrow. 

Figure 1


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