In 2009, we predicted (WTI) oil price $45 to $50 in 2015

This is an excerpt from our 2009 post on oil price as based on our papers from 2008 [1] and 2009 [1, 2].

The price should fluctuate around the downward trend (see figure) from $80 in 2010 to $45-$50 in 2015.

Figure 1. Prediction of the evolution of the price index for motor fuel (read oil) relative to the core CPI. Black line - actual measurements, black line with red circles - the prediction from March 2009 to December 2009. Solid red line - new trend of the difference of the core CPI and the index for motor fuel.Oil price will break the level of $80 to $90 and will reach the level above $100 by the end of 2009. Then oil price will be gradually declining to ~$50 in 2015


This is real oil price trajectory:So, we accurately predicted the price.