6/7/13

The rate of unemployment in May below 7.5%?

Today a new estimate will be announced for the rate of unemployment in the USA. We have been following this variable since 2006 when our general model linking labor force, price inflation, and rate of unemployment was first published. Approximately a  month ago we predicted a significant drop in this rate in May 2013 as based on the fall in labor force five years ago (i.e. in 2008). The range of expert predictions for May 2013 in 7.4% to 7.5% as reported by the WSJ Market Data Center.

Our best guess is 7.3% to 7.1% as figure below suggests.
 
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