A fairy tale about the future rate of unemployment in the US

The rate of unemployment, u, was very high (10%) in 2009. It has been often discussed that the fall in this rate is too slow historically. Figure 1 shows the evolution of u since 1980. There were two major peaks in 1982 (10.8%) and 1992 (7.8%). (All rates are seasonally adjusted.) When the troughs preceding the peaks are synchronized all three descending curves look very similar. This observation says that the current fall in u is not different from the previous. It also tells us a fairy story about the near future.  This rate will fall into the second half of the 2010s. Meanwhile, it may fall to 6.0% in 2013 or in the first half of 2014.
It is worth noting that the start troughs before two major peaks in Figure 1 were higher than the end troughs.  If this trend is retained the next trough should be ~4%.
Figure 1. The rate of unemployment in the US
Figure 2.  Two previous major peaks synchronized with the most recent. The length of fall is approximately 7 years.


  1. Forex Live contest require real money to join in the contest and trade. Mostly Expert and experience trader join Live competition as there are risk involve. If a trader losses money actualy he losses his real money, so it the real Forex game that suit the real Trader.

  2. Discover the best no deposit binary options bonus deals in 2018. Check the top brokers ... No deposit binary options bonuses are offered by many brokers but bonuses take many forms. Most offer a ... By using the free bonus funds you can make these mistakes knowing that it isn't going to cost you personally. Check out the .

  3. This comment has been removed by the author.

  4. Forex Live Contests common things - Get Only current and latest Forex Live Competitions list from most reputable and valuable Forex Brokers in 2019.


Principal idea of capitalism: the people only work because and so long as they are poor

This is an excerpt from "The Protestant Ethic and the Spirit of Capitalism"  by Max Weber Another obvious possibility, to retur...