The rate of unemployment, u, was very high (10%) in 2009. It
has been often discussed that the fall in this rate is too slow historically.
Figure 1 shows the evolution of u since 1980. There were two major peaks in 1982
(10.8%) and 1992 (7.8%). (All rates are seasonally adjusted.) When the troughs preceding
the peaks are synchronized all three descending curves look very similar. This
observation says that the current fall in u is not different from the previous.
It also tells us a fairy story about the near future. This rate will fall into the second half of
the 2010s. Meanwhile, it may fall to 6.0% in 2013 or in the first half of 2014.
It is worth noting that the start troughs before two major peaks in Figure 1 were higher than the end troughs. If this trend is retained the next trough should be ~4%.
Figure 1. The rate of unemployment in the US
Figure 2. Two
previous major peaks synchronized with the most recent. The length of fall is
approximately 7 years.
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