7/3/24

The secret of the Russian economic growth after 2022

Since 2022, the Russian economy has been growing along the recovery path after the years of the overall industrial degradation. All conditions were ready for this growth: energy/materials/mineral resources, industrial facilities, and human capital. The industrial development was not profitabale in the beginning of the 21st century in the sence of global economic division and becasue of political decisions. The influence of business on national-level economic decisions evaporated and the definition of "profit" changed. now we observe the growth path as in the late 1990s early 2000s when the Russian economy grew extremely fast after an approximately 40% decline in the real GDP (see my SSRN paper). This recovery may last (with some deceleration) a few years and then it has to return to the self-driven path of approximately 3% per year. 

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