The time is coming when European countries have to pay for natural gas from Russia received in April. The new mechanism requires a euro/rouble exchange in Russia. The tension is growing and the most dependent on the Russian gas supply countries have to mitigate the risks of the gas absence on a one-year horizon - time to fill underground storage. Some countries try to talk to Putin. For example, the Austrian Chancellor Nehammer visited Moscow in a desperate attempt to fix the problem masking it with the discussion on Ukraine. Austria has a very poor position in the center of Europe and any gas supply except Russia will leave it without gas in the case of an overall shortage. LPG comes by sea and thus Austria has no influence on this supply chain. Gas from Norway and Algeria passes so many countries that the case of COVID-19 vaccine supply just a year ago is still a painful story.
There are European countries rejecting even the idea of euro/rouble exchange. They are going to pay in euros risking initiating the "Force Majeure" clause in the contracts. Euro and dollar have no value in Russia anymore and this type of currency exchange in Russia has large difficulties - there is no euro and dollar demand at all. It is hard to get roubles since the euro is not a currency. This makes the mechanism proposed by Putin likely available only on a "the first to come" basis. The second to come may have nothing instead of natural gas. Then the gas demand will spike and even a small amount of gas will cost more than now. Russia will get money anyway.
The choice is: To rouble or not to rouble?
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