Good weather in the UK is accompanied by low wind speed resulting in a drop in wind energy production to a negligible level. The next week will be rainy and cloudy with low solar energy production but likely with a significant increase in wind energy.
Considering the current low green energy share in the total electricity balance one can evaluate the plan for an expedited increase in renewables. During the best days in 2022, renewables may give more than 50% of electricity. This means that one should not increase the current stock of solar panels and windmills by more than a factor of 2. Excessive electricity production is not yet matched by effective storage capabilities like batteries or hydrogen. The latter is the most preferable storage means because hydrogen has the largest energy density among all non-nuclear materials (see figure 2 below). However, when doubled, the renewables still give 30% of electricity during poor days of anti-cyclons. This means that fossils will still be needed at the same level as now before hydrogen batteries will be available to store enough green energy.
The expedited transition to renewables has another negative effect - the biggest players in energy production have to accelerate the transition to green energy and stop investment, drilling, extraction, and exploration (bad time for oil service companies). This is a kind of stock market panic - the last leaving the market pays full price. As a result, fossil prices will be growing in response to the famous supply-demand equation. The panic wave is at a low start right now and we will see the real fight for energy resources in the months to come.
Figure 1. Electricity production
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