12/15/21

US price inflation is actually dollar devaluation

 do not confuse benign price inflation and dollar devaluation. Inflation is an economic process to match the volume of goods and services to personal income and thus labor force. Trump and Biden devalued the US dollar by injecting (through government social transfers) trillions in personal income (104% of GDP in 2022 and ~100% in 2021 with a long-term average of 85%) Considering the fall in GDP, the injection was around 30%. This value is observed in some PPI variables which will surface in a few months. In that sense, the price growth is not long-term "structural", but “helicopter” or short-term transient. But the price will not fall to the 2019 level after the transition immediately. First, the real personal income will sink below the 2019 level, however. Then a dramatic deflation period will come. The wave of deflation related to the fall in real personal income was suppressed in 2020 and 2021 by the government transfers. The economy is a real process, however.

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