EU has a problem. No natural gas to heat homes. Homes of laypeople. Electricity is too expensive. Even in France, where ~71% of electricity is produced by nuclear power stations. Disaster is approaching with winter weather. Why? How could it happen?
I wrote a post about the wrong risk assessment. It was the first thing when one learns management at a basic level. There is a risk assessment scale that allows comparing the cost of various outcomes. Like: 1) winter is warm and no extra energy source is needed to reserve for some additional cost. 2) winter is cold and a lot of energy has to be reserved. The first option looks cheap and efficient. The second option seems to be costly and inefficient. Having 1 cold winter from 10, one should definitely go for the first option. This is wrong. There is an opportunity that the cost of the cold winter is much higher than 100 of warm. The risk assessment means that one defines the score or weight of a negative outcome compared to the losses related to extra energy reservation. Laypeople will suffer to death this winter. This is an indispensable loss. The energy crisis is a life-threatening crisis.
This is due to the wrong risk assessment which is clear for the 3rd-grade pupils. Politicians are above the laypeople, of course. Obviously, politicians and the Greens will not switch off their heating devices this winter. One needs to develop a special technical solution how to test all decisions on the people who propose them. This would be extremely helpful in the risk assessment.
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