What is the difference between Chernobyl, Fukushima and Texas blackout

 All of these are catastrophic events with human lives lost. The Chernobyl nuclear reactor runaway is fully a personal responsibility. A nuclear reactor is not a good place for experiments. Such experiments are prohibited now. Fukushima is a technical problem with risk underestimation. This is an example of a black swan or a statistically infinitesimal event out of normal distribution. Technically, one can easily resolve this issue.  Texas blackout in February 2021 is a new type of event. There is no technical solution yet. Renewable energy sources are fundamentally unreliable and the interaction of the state-of-the-art windmills or solar panels with the potential weather outliers is inevitable in the future.  People will die in progressive numbers with the growing part of RES (however, hydropower and nuclear power are RES as well). 

Russia and EU

 I have presented in this blog the economic growth dispersion in the EU and highlighted the difference between Germany and other biggest countries - France, Italy, and Spain. The EU suffers significant economic problems with varying growth rates and economic power as expressed by price-setting capabilities that only grow with time. Economic problems make the EU very vulnerable in political and social dimensions. Russia takes the opportunity to intensify the internal conflicts in the EU by rejecting cooperation with the EU as such, i.e. with the countries with anti-Russian agenda. Germany is the main beneficiary of the economic links with Russia and this effect is also seen in the coherent and extremely fast economic growth in both countries. Nord Stream 2 makes Germany an unbeatable European power with the lowest energy cost so important for the exports - the driver of the German expansion. Russia shakes the EU in an attempt to strengthen the bi-lateral links. For Russia, political and economic relations with the EU have no sense anymore after the COVID-19 response,  deeper economic fall, and the police actions against peaceful demonstrations. Europe (Italy, France, Spain, Belgium, the Netherlands, Sweden, etc.)  is seen as a major loser, traitor, and unreliable partner in the eyes of the less developed countries. It is the best time to make bi-lateral connections and the EU showed that individual EU members are eager to save themselves. So, the time to split the EU is perfect for Russia and China.  The US only helps by supporting selected EU members. 

From blog to working paper: The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries

 The link between unemployment and real economic growth in developed countries

Abstract

Ten years ago we presented a modified version of Okun’s law for the biggest developed economies and reported its excellent predictive power. In this study, we revisit the original models using the estimates of real GDP per capita and unemployment rate between 2010 and 2019. The initial results show that the change in unemployment rate can be accurately predicted by variations in the rate of real economic growth. There is a discrete version of the model which is represented by a piecewise linear dependence of the annual increment in unemployment rate on the annual rate of change in real GDP per capita. The lengths of the country-dependent time segments are defined by breaks in the GDP measurement units associated with definitional revisions to the nominal GDP and GDP deflator (dGDP). The difference between the CPI and dGDP indices since the beginning of measurements reveals the years of such breaks. Statistically, the link between the studied variables in the revised models is characterized by the coefficient of determination in the range from R2=0.866 (Australia) to R2=0.977 (France). The residual errors can be likely associated with the measurement errors, e.g. the estimates of real GDP per capita from various sources differ by tens of percent. The obtained results confirm the original finding on the absence of structural unemployment in the studied developed countries.

From blog to a working paper: Real GDP per capita: global redistribution of economic power

 I published several posts in this blog and found it appropriate to compile a working paper. I did the same trick with other papers in the past. Blogging really helps. 

Real GDP per capita: global redistribution of economic power

Abstract

Growth rate of real GDP per capita, GDPpc, is represented as a sum of two components – a monotonically decreasing economic trend and fluctuations related to population change. The economic trend is modelled by an inverse function of GDPpc with a constant numerator which varies for the largest developed economies. In 2006, a statistical analysis conducted for 19 selected OECD countries for the period between 1950 and 2003 showed a very weak linear trend in the annual GDPpc increment for the largest economies: the USA, Japan, France, Italy, and Spain. The UK, Australia, and Canada showed a slightly steeper positive linear trend. The 2012 revision showed that the positive trends became much lower and some of them fell below zero due to the Great Recession. The fluctuations around the trend values are characterized by a quasi-normal distribution with heavy and asymmetric tails. This research revises the previous estimates and extends the set of studied countries by economies in East Europe, Latin America, BRICS, Africa, and Asia including several positive outliers with extremely fast growth. The change in GDP definitions and measuring procedures with time and economic source is discussed in relation to the statistical significance of the trend estimates and data quality requirements for a consistent economic model. The relative performance of all counties since 1960 is compared according to the predicted total GDPpc growth as a function of the initial value. The performance in the 21st century is analyzed separately as revealing potential and actual shifts in the global economic powers.

Why I fully support Biden

 1. President Biden is supporting and is supported by the liberal community as a perfect representative of Democrats. In the 20th century, the liberal idea was changing from economic to personal sexual orientation rights. One can check the most recent history when the same Dems were nastily joking about homosexuality. We could expect further changes in the liberal ideas with the current approach fully denied. The essence of liberalism is permanent progress. It never stops. I support this evolutionary development. The future is hard to see, and "we do not know what we do not yet know".  Science is all about progress in the understanding of nature, human beings, and society.  

2. As a physicist, I appreciate very much the approach "we choose truth over facts". I would like to join the Biden and Co supporters in the process of truth definition. Hard sciences will be needed in this process in order to avoid choosing "facts" by mistake. Only scientists can be experts in the adequate selection of facts to be rejected in order to have naked truth. 

3. According to J.Haidt, liberals prefer fairness (proportionality) and care (harm) as moral foundations. They do not like authority, loyalty (ingroup), and divinity (purity) as moral foundations. In general, police and army are based on the latter three. Imagine a liberal policeman who chooses his own freedom over the rules and regulations to obey. The army is the same type of organization with the overwhelming dominance of authority, loyalty, and purity (remember the National Guards sleeping on the concrete floor in the Capitol). Interestingly, new defense secretary Austin is an almost full anagram of Stalin who purged the top Red Army command staff just before 1939. It definitely helped to win WWII.  I am sure that the liberal approach to police and the army will strengthen their order and power.

4. Biden is a major part of the geriatric team driving the US. I met some Soviet Politbureau members in the 1970s and found these old gentlemen as wonderful people. I am sure that their wisdom was the best for the Soviet Union to prosper. 

5. I find the measures against Trump supporters as adequate and supporting the integrity of the nation. 

Why I fully support transgender participation in female competitions

This is a clear problem of equality. More transgenders in women's competition will make them more attractive to the broader audience. These competitions will be closer to male versions. The participants of the women's games with transgenders will earn more money. I especially welcome transgenders in tennis where progress and success depend on speed and strength.  I am sorry for the other direction transgenders, who will not have an advantage in the new gender company.  

   

It is highly likely that real economic growth in the USA in overestimated by 26% since 1979

We discussed the problem of inflation definition in the USA in many posts (e.g., this one). The principal finding is that the CPI and GDP deflator, dGDP, started to deviate in 1979 due to the introduction of new price inflation definition. Figure 1 presents the CPI and dGDP and gives a clear understanding that the dGDP is just the CPI divided by 1.22. This is an important observation for an unbiased real GDP per capita estimate in the USA. The new definition is highly likely was introduced to obtain a larger real GDP per capita than was calculated with the CPI. Figure 2 presents the real GDP per capita reported by the BEA and that recalculated using the ratio of the CPI and dGDP. One can see that the GDP per capita in 2019 should be $39,500 instead of the reported value of $49,649, i.e. only 80% of the current level.

It is highly likely that real economic growth in the US in overestimated by 26% since 1979 

Figure 1. The CPI and dGDP in the USA. After 1979, dGDP=CPI/1.22.

 

Figure 2. The GDP per capita estimates in the USA as published by the BEA and that corrected with the difference between the dGDP and CPI.