1/31/21

Ovechkin ahead of Gretzky since 31.01.2021

Gretzky has 894 goals between 1978 and 1999. During these seasons there were 18669 NHL games with 62995 goals (recalculated from NHL official table). This makes 3.374 goals per game. Ovechkin plays since 2005 with a total of 18000 NHL games (including 126 in 2020-2021)  and an average of 2.668 goals per game. 

The average goals per game gives a perfect estimate of how it was difficult to score during the period of activity. During the Gretzky era, the average was higher indicating that it was easier to score to everyone in the NHL.  The share of Gretzky in the total number of goals is 1.42%, i.e. his own capability did not influence the total statistics.  Ovechkin has 1.47% of the total goals and is not responsible for the average value of 2.668. Hence, it was harder to score in the Ovechkin era since 2005. This is a direct result of the goalies' better equipment and their improving skills. 

Considering the difference in the scoring conditions for the scorers it is instructive to recalculate Ovechkin's goals to the Gretzky time conditions, i.e. to multiply 707 goals (before the match with Boston on January 31) by the ratio of average goals per game 707*3.374/2.668=894.  Therefore, goal #708  against Boston moved Ovechkin ahead of Gretzky in the equalized scoring count. If playing in the Gretzky era conditions Ovechkin would have 805 goals today. It is the same to say that if playing in the Ovechkin time, Gretzky would have only 707 goals in total. 



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