12/29/14

Oil, 2016, Russia, WWIII

We have posted on all items in the title of this post separately. Briefly, we predicted oil price to fall to $30 in 2016. Russia is the country critically dependent on oil price. The best real GDP projections for Russia with oil at $60 still include a few years of recession and high inflation. These economic phenomena are famous to punish the poorest part of population - retirees and unqualified personnel. This is the root electorate of United Russia - the current power. In the shade of low oil price and partly demoralized electorate, Russia runs into the 2016 legislative elections. This is kind of perfect storm when all possible negative factors come together and, by positive feedback, multiply damaging power. 

This could be extremely heavy burden just for the Russian society if not the Ukraine conflict. Not exaggerating the degree of internal protests initiated by socio-economic degradation we cannot exclude fierce suppression of any kind protest since the beginning of 2015. West will pour some oil (irony) into the internal and external conflicts ... and WWIII.  

I feel panic.

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