Will EU sanctions produce recession in ... EU?

When calculating the outcome of sanctions political leaders focus on some simple figures of immediate loss for both sides. The problem is that they ignore real economic forces underlying the reaction of complex economies to any major disturbance.  The first response of the country imposing sanctions might seem minor when expressed in Euro, but it makes not only immediate harm but changes business risks throughout the whole economy. The new profile of economic risks affect financial system by increasing risk premium and slowing  business. The whole economic system, especially in the years of slow recovery, might sink into another recession period before reaching a stable growth path. Political elites feel this possibility, which is dangerous for them in terms of troubles for elections, and likely react wrongly by new sanctions mainly supporting the emotional side of punishment. A new round of sanction will likely increase the level of economic and financial risks exponentially. The only benefit is that the country under sanctions will suffer more.
As in boxing, the heavy-weight winner is always in bruises and own blood. But who cares when brain is damaged

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