Expecting the "Employment Situation" release - will the rate of unemployment fall below 6.5%

A few hours before the BLS releases the “Employment Situation” for January 2014 we revise our prediction and estimate the expected value of unemployment rate below 6.5%. The rate of unemployment in December 2013 is 6.7%. In 2014, this rate should fall down to 4% and even lower in 2015. For details of our model, see our previous post. Here we just update two figures with predicted and measured values. It is worth noting that our model predicts 2 years ahead. The accuracy of prediction is excellent.

Figure 1. Observed and predicted rate of unemployment in the USA. The predicted curve leads the observed one by 2 years.

Figures 2. The predicted rate of unemployment. We expect this rate to fall down to 6.0%  and likely below in the beginning 2014.

No comments:

Post a Comment