We've just finished and published a working paper. The reader may want to download it from the MPRA: Real GDP per capita since 1870

**Abstract**

The growth rate of real GDP per capita in the
biggest OECD countries is represented as a sum of two components – a steadily decreasing
trend and fluctuations related to the change in some specific age population.
The long term trend in the growth rate is modelled by an inverse function of
real GDP per capita with a constant numerator. This numerator is equivalent to
a constant annual increment of real GDP per capita. For the most advanced
economies, the GDP estimates between 1950 and 2007 have shown very weak and
statistically insignificant linear trends (both positive and negative) in the
annual increment. The fluctuations around relevant mean increments are
characterized by practically normal distribution. For many countries, there
exist historical estimates of real GDP since 1870. These estimates extend the
time span of our analysis together with a few new estimates from 2008 to 2011. There are severe structural breaks in the corresponding
time series between 1940 and 1950, with the slope of linear regression
increasing by a factor of 4.0 (Switzerland) to 22.1 (Spain). Therefore, the GDP
estimates before 1940 and after 1950 have been analysed separately. All
findings of the original study are validated by the newly available data. The
most important is that all slopes (except that for Australia after 1950) of the regression lines obtained for the
annual increments of real GDP per capita are small and statistically insignificant, i.e. one cannot reject the null hypothesis of a
zero slope and thus constant increment. Hence the growth in real GDP per capita
is a linear one since 1870 with a break in slope between 1940 and 1950.

**Key words:**GDP, model, economic growth, inertia, trend, OECD
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