Modeling the change in unemployment rate: Canada, Australia and Spain

I continue model the change in unemployment rate as a linear function of the change rate  of real GDP per capita. (See my previous posts)

For Canada, I have estimated the following relation with a structural break in 1985

dlnG = -2.7du + 3.1, t<1995

dlnG = -2.7du + 1.2, t>1994

Figure 1 presents the observed dlnG curve and the scaled du, i.e. the change in GDP predicted from the change in the rate of unemployment.  The agreement is excellent, but both curves are volatile. I have smoothed them with MA(3).

For Spain, the result is really fantastic! the following relation is obtained with a structural break in 1987:

dlnG = -2.0du + 5, t<1987

dlnG = -0.8du + 2.1, t>1986

Figure 2 presents the observed and predicted dlnG. There might be another structural breal around 1970.

For Australia, the result might be not so exciting but is very good:

dlnG = -1.7du + 2.5, t<1995

dlnG = -3.0du + 1.3 t>1994

Figure 3 presents the observed and predicted curves smoothed with MA(3) and a structural breal in 1995. 

Figure 1. Annual growth rate of real GDP per capita, dlnG, and the scaled rate of unemployment, du. The lower panel shows the curves smoothed with MA(3)

Figure 2. Same as in Figure 1 for Spain .

Figure 3. Same as in Figure 1 for Australia