1/30/11

On real GDP growth in the US

The U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (http://www.bea.gov) has reported an estimate of real GDP in the fourth quarter of 2010. Accordingly, a new estimate of the growth rate in 2010 is available. It looks not so bad: +2.9% per year. Let’s ignore the rates of growth for a while and find out where the U.S. stays in terms of real GDP level. Below is a table with quarterly real (in billions of chained 2005 US dollars) GDP estimates since 2007:


2007q1 13,089.3
2007q2 13,194.1
2007q3 13,268.5
2007q4 13,363.5
2008q1 13,339.2
2008q2 13,359.0
2008q3 13,223.5
2008q4 12,993.7
2009q1 12,832.6
2009q2 12,810.0
2009q3 12,860.8
2009q4 13,019.0
2010q1 13,138.8
2010q2 13,194.9
2010q3 13,278.5
2010q4 13,382.6

Well, the US has finally overcome by a 19 billion margin the level of 2007q4. At a healthy pace of 2.5% per year, the rise since 2007 should be around 1 trillion. Moreover, approximately 1% of real economic growth in the U.S. is associated with the overall population increase by 1% per year. In the fourth quarter of 2007, real GDP per capita was $44.292 (civilian population in December 2007 - 301,710,949) and in the same quarter of 2010 - only $43.255. The overall decrease in real GDP per capita since 2007 is 2.3%.

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