AMGN, ANF, ASH models

The bets-fit two-component (2-C) model for AMGN is as follows:

AMGN(t)= 0.90DIARY(t-13) – 4.70AB(t) +18.69(t-1990) + 539.7

where DIARY in the index of diary and related products leading the stock price by 13 months, AB is the index of alcoholic beverages leading by 0 months, (t-1990) is the elapsed time.

Figure 1. Observed and predicted share prices, AMGN.

The bets-fit two-component (2-C) model for AMGN is as follows:

ANF(t)= -3.76OFH(t-1) – 2.76TS(t-5) +18.69(t-1990) + 539.7

where OFH in the index of other food at home leading the stock price by 1 month, TS is the index of transportation services leading by 5 months, (t-1990) is the elapsed time.

Figure 2. Observed and predicted share prices, Abercrombie and Fitch.

The bets-fit two-component (2-C) model for Ashland Inc., ASH, is as follows:

ASH(t)= -8.57SEFV(t-2) – 2.29MISS(t-5) +83.36(t-1990) + 1090.6

where SEFV in the index of food away from home leading the stock price by 2 month, MISS is the index of miscellaneous services leading by 5 months, (t-1990) is the elapsed time.

Figure 3. Observed and predicted share prices, Ashland Inc., ASH