## 9/16/09

### ConocoPhillips share price revisited

Since September 16, the readings of the headline CPI and its components for August 2009 are available (we retrieve all CPI data from http://www.bls.gov/data). We recalculate our model for selected stock prices from the S&P 500 list. First is ConocoPhillips since it provides a good example of a company, which share price has been leading defining components of the CPI. In the previous posts and articles [1,2] we introduced several models with varying number of CPI components. Here we compare two models. The first one, we call it 3-C model, is seeking those two CPI components from 34 pre-selected ones, which minimize the difference between observed (monthly closing price adjusted for dividends and splits) and predicted prices for the period between July 2003 and August 2009. This model also includes free term (constant) and linear time term [3-6], which compensates well know linear (time) trends between various CPI components. The second model (5-C) uses four CPI components and free term. The number of potential defining components is reduced to ten: food (F), housing (H), apparel (A), transportations (T), medical care (M), recreation (R), education and communication (EC), other goods and services (O), the headline CPI (C), and the core CPI (CC). These components compile a full set of the CPI expenditure categories, and also comprise a subset of the 34-component set.
The 3-C model for COP is as follows:

COP(t)= 3.41CF(t+1) - 7.17EC(t-6) + 7.22*(t-2000) + 145.76 (1)

where CF is the headline CPI less food. It does not differ from the model presented in the previous post except the time shifts are +1 (was +2) month and -6 (was -5) months now. This is due to the inclusion on the CPI readings for August. Figure 1 shows the predicted and observed curves. Standard deviation between the curves is \$3.96 for the period between July 2003 and August 2009.

Figure 1. Observed and 3-C predicted COP’s share prices.

The 5-C model does not include the linear time term, but two components extra to the 3-C model play this role. The best 5-C model also shows that the stock price leads all defining CPI components:

COP(t)= 1.53H(t+3) – 8.29R(t+1) – 4.90EC(t-6) + 3.53C(t+1) + 518.4 (2)

There components from the four defining lag behind COP share price and only the EC leads by six months. Figure 2 presents the model. Standard deviation between the curves is only \$3.03 for the period between July 2003 and August 2009, which is better than the accuracy of the 3-C model.
Figure 2. Observed and 5-C predicted COP’s share prices.

At first glance, the 5-C prediction is better that the 3-C one. However, this conclusion is not fully correct. As mentioned above, the extra two components chiefly represent the linear trend. Figure 2 illustrates the phenomenon. The difference between R and EC actually provides a linear trend with small fluctuations, which slightly suppress the residual of the 3-C model. Among all pairs of CPI components -8.29R(t+1) – 4.90EC(t-6) suppresses the model residual (noise) the most efficient. It is a positive side of the 5-C model. It has a negative side as well. The difference may diverge from the linear trend in the next several months and will increase the residual and thus the accuracy of prediction instead of suppression. So, we do prefer using the 3-C model for the prediction of share prices. Figure 4 depicts both residuals.

Figure 3. Two differences between defining components in (2).

Figure 4. Residuals of the 3-C and 5-C models.
We will continue updating both empirical models. The next obvious date is October 1, 2009 with the next closing share price for September.
References
[1] Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009). Predicting share price of energy companies: June-September 2009, MPRA Paper 15863, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15863/01/MPRA_paper_15863.pdf
[2] Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009). Modelling selected S&P 500 share prices, MPRA Paper 15862, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15862/01/MPRA_paper_15862.pdf
[3] Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2008). Long-Term Linear Trends In Consumer Price Indices, Journal of Applied Economic Sciences, Spiru Haret University, Faculty of Financial Management and Accounting Craiova, vol. 3(2(4)_Summ), pp. 101-112.
[4] Kitov, I., (2009). Apples and oranges: relative growth rate of consumer price indices, MPRA Paper 13587, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/13587/01/MPRA_paper_13587.pdf
[5] Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009). A fair price for motor fuel in the United States, MPRA Paper 15039, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15039/01/MPRA_paper_15039.pdf
[6] Kitov, I., Kitov, O., (2009). Sustainable trends in producer price indices, MPRA Paper 15194, University Library of Munich, Germany, http://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de/15194/01/MPRA_paper_15194.pdf